Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 437 PM EDT Mon Sep 09 2013 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 10 2013 - 00Z Thu Sep 12 2013 ...Moderate rains...with embedded strong to severe storms...expected from the Upper Great Lakes into interior New England... ...Heat and humidity will be on the rise across the Ohio Valley...Northeast...and northern Mid-Atlantic states... ...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will promote a risk of flash flooding across the Southwest... A surface low tracking northeastward out of the Upper Midwest and through the Upper Great Lakes will be the main weather across the northern tier of the Nation during the short range period. A warm front extending eastward from the low will surge north through the Ohio Valley...northern Mid-Atlantic states...and Northeast...raising temperatures and humidity levels in its wake. A fairly well organized axis of moderate rains...with embedded strong to severe thunderstorms...is expected to develop to the north of the boundary and should impact locations from the northern Great Lakes into interior New England. By Wednesday afternoon...scattered convection will be possible to the south of the warm front...within a warm and juicy airmass setting up near the central to southern Appalachians. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible along a cold front trailing from the surface low...which is expected to slowly press southeastward through the Midwest and Central Plains the next few days. Along the southern tier of the U.S....monsoonal flow will continue to support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest...Central Great Basin...and southern/central Rockies. Energy aloft...combined with above normal moisture in place...should help ignite and fuel organized areas of moderate to heavy precipitation across the region. The moderate to heavy rains will pose a risk for flash flooding. Elsewhere...persistent easterly flow will continue to produce scattered convection over the western Gulf of Mexico and across south Texas. Gerhardt Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php