Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 446 AM EDT Fri Oct 04 2013 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2013 - 12Z Sun Oct 06 2013 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southern Plains to parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley with an embedded area of moderate risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Iowa... ...Heavy snow possible over parts of the Northern Plains... ...Heavy rain possible from parts of the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes and over parts of the Western Tennessee Valley... ...Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to move roughly northward to the Central Gulf Coast by Saturday evening bringing heavy rain to the area... Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to move roughly northward to the Central Gulf Coast by Saturday evening. The storm will bringing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain at times to the Central Gulf Coast on Saturday. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Gulf Coast into parts of the Tennessee Valley by Friday afternoon. For the latest on Karen's track and intensity see the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. A strong storm over the Central High Plains will produce heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and Northern/Central High Plains, moving onto parts of the Northern Plains while reducing in intensity to moderate snow before ending on Saturday afternoon. The cold front associated with the system will move from the Southern Rockies eastward to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over the Central/Southern Plains on Friday evening, expanding southward along the front to the Western Gulf Coast while moving eastward to the Western Ohio Valley, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley by Saturday evening. In the meantime, along the quasi-stationary front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to New England will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes to parts of New England on Friday and Saturday. In addition, moisture will overrun the boundary producing light to moderate rain over parts of the Northern/Central Plains into parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Elsewhere, moisture rich air over the southern tip of Florida will aid in triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area on Friday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php