Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2013 Valid 00Z Sun Nov 24 2013 - 00Z Tue Nov 26 2013 ...Significant winter storm expected for the Southern Plains, to last through Sunday night... ...Blast of Arctic air will move into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... An anomalous upper level low will slowly track eastward over the next couple of days, from its current position over southern California, to near the Texas panhandle by Monday afternoon. This system will encounter a bitter cold airmass which is currently in place over a good portion of the country, east of the Rockies. Higher elevation heavy snow is expected from the mountains of New Mexico into southern Colorado with light to moderate snowfall for remaining lower elevations. Meanwhile, an above freezing pocket of warmer air located roughly 5,000 to 10,000 feet above the surface is expected to be present across central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as the upper low edges closer and low level flow turns southerly. This setup will lead to a messy mixture of sleet and freezing rain beginning tonight in southwestern Texas, with mostly snow across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The wintry mixture will spread northeastward through the day on Saturday and Sunday with storm total ice accumulations between 0.25 and 0.5 inches possible for locations in the northern Texas Hill Country. Lesser, but still significant, ice and sleet accumulations should spread into the Dallas/Fort-Worth Metroplex with primarily light snow/sleet across central and western Oklahoma. Lake effect snow will be common for folks south and east of the Great Lakes as a secondary surge of arctic air sweeps through the Ohio Valley and Northeast tonight. The favored locations for the heaviest snow will include the U.P. of Michigan where over a foot of snow is expected through they day Sunday, and farther east with over six inches likely for northwestern Pennsylvania into western New York as well as localized areas in central New York. Temperatures, with the exception of Florida and the North Central U.S. will range from 10 to 30 degrees below average for this time of year on Sunday with a little bit of moderation on Monday. Otto Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php