Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014 Valid 00Z Mon Sep 01 2014 - 00Z Wed Sep 03 2014 ...Severe weather possible from the Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days... ...A slight risk for flash flooding for portions of the Midwest and central Plains... ...Temperatures expected to be warmer than normal outside the northern Rockies... The general weather pattern features a stronger than normal subtropical ridge spanning from the southern Mid-Atlantic states across portions of the Ohio Valley, Deep South, southern Plains, into the Southwest. This ridge is expected to keep temperatures above normal over the next few days over the bulk of the lower 48. A couple systems progressing ahead of disturbance aloft surfing the upper level jet are expected to cause thunderstorms to break out from the central Plains into the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states, where anomalous moisture for late August/early September is also present which could lead to flash flooding. Vertical wind shear and instability is sufficient within this region to also support the possibility of severe thunderstorms over the next 2-3 days per thoughts from the Storm Prediction Center. Out West, behind a slowly progressive cold front, cooler temperatures and high pressure will prevail through Labor Day. This should be the only section of the country with below normal temperatures over the next few days. Mainly isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out, however, as pieces of weak energy in the flow aloft move through portions of the Northern Rockies, the northern High Plains, and the higher terrain of the Pacific Northwest. Down south across southern Texas, eyes are watching a tropical disturbance moving across the northwest Caribbean sea, which is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move through the Bay of Campeche and approach northeast Mexico in 2-3 days. This system is forecast to bring into the region anomalous moisture which may lead to moderate to heavy rains from late Tuesday onward, the degree of which is highly dependent upon the system's organization and future track. See the latest 5-day graphic tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center regarding this system's chances of development and expected track. Roth/Monarski Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php