Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2015 Valid 00Z Tue Jun 16 2015 - 00Z Thu Jun 18 2015 ...Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico forecast to bring very heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding to western portion of the Gulf Coast... ...Showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding to areas from the plains to the Ohio valley... ...Severe thunderstorms possible from portions of the Intermountain West to the northern plains... The weather pattern will be an active one across the contiguous U.S. over the next couple days. An area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible tropical development. Please refer to products from the NHC for the latest details on this system. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops, the system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall to much of eastern Texas over the next couple days. Flash flooding associated with this system will present a hazard across much of eastern Texas. A cold front will move from the Great Lakes and Ohio valley today into the Northeast on Tuesday. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The trailing frontal boundary across the plains will become stationary tonight, before moving back northward as a warm front by late Tuesday. This will keep good chances for showers and thunderstorms in place across portions of the southern and central plains through Tuesday. Deep moisture feeding northward into these areas from the tropics will result in the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the southern/central plains, Ohio valley, and southern Great Lakes. A stationary front will linger in place across northern portions of the Intermountain West. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front across Wyoming Tuesday morning and will move into the northern plains during the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the northern Intermountain West in association with the front. A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is possible across the northern plains tonight into Tuesday as the wave of low pressure develops. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across these areas. Please refer to the Convective Outlook products issued by the SPC for further details on the severe weather threat. Ryan Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php