Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2016
Valid 00Z Sun Mar 13 2016 - 00Z Tue Mar 15 2016
...Additional rain likely from Texas to Mississippi...
...Rain and mountain snow for the West Coast and Intermountain West...
...Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday for the lower Mississippi
Valley...
Moderate rain, with periods of higher intensities, will persist this
weekend across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. Although the
system that pounded the Gulf states with torrential rain is weakening,
enough moisture and instability remains in place to generate convection
from Texas to Alabama. A low pressure system crossing the southern Rockies
today will drag a cold front through the Central/Southern Plains on
Sunday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the already
water-logged region, and will likely exasperate recovery efforts in the
lower Mississippi Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this
region with a slight risk for severe thunderstorm development, for
additional information please refer to the SPC webpage.
Scattered to widespread rain is forecast for a majority of the eastern
third of the U.S. A low pressure system will lift north and east from the
South as Gulf moisture streams in overheard. At the same time, a frontal
system will push south and east across the High Plains into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches will
be common through Tuesday.
A series of frontal systems will progress eastward through the West and
Intermountain West bringing multiple rounds of rain and mountain snow
over the next couple of days. The Cascades and the Sierra Nevadas are
forecast to have the highest snow accumulations; where 3-day totals of 1
to 3 feet
will be possible at the highest elevations. The Sawtooth Range and Salmon
River Mountains in Idaho potentially could have up to 2 ft. Lower
elevations/coastal areas from the Olympic peninsula to northern California
will have multiple periods of heavier rainfall. The risk for flash
flooding will be elevated for southwest Oregon and portions of northern
California through Monday morning, therefore Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
have been issued - refer to
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php
information.
Strong winds will impact a large region spanning from coastal areas to the
Great Basin as the Pacific systems approach the coast and move inland.
Wind gusts exceeding 50 mph at times are forecast - wind advisories are in
effect from Washington to California and western Nevada.
Campbell
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php