Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2016 Valid 12Z Wed Aug 10 2016 - 12Z Fri Aug 12 2016 ...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... ...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to continue across the central Gulf Coast states... ...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico... A frontal boundary sprawling across the northern states will become a focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great lakes region. Conditions will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm to materialize across the Dakota and Minnesota today - the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight risk over northern High Plains. Additionally, bursts of heavy rain will be possible with any of these storms and will increase the risk for flash flooding across the northern Plains. WPC also has a slight risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding from the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes through Thursday, with a moderate risk possible on Wednesday across central Minnesota as moisture pooling around a surface low interacts with a warm front lifting northward through the state. A lingering surface low over the Coastal Plains will continue to pump tropical moisture into the South and Southeast. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will initiate and track across the Gulf states, yielding high rainfall amounts, especially along the Gulf Coast. Disturbances in the mid- and upper-level flow will keep shower and thunderstorm activity going across Tennessee and Ohio valleys, as well as, the Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic region. Monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will generate showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest/Eastern Great Basin into parts of the Central/Southern Rockies and High Plains through Thursday. An additional flux of moisture from the post-tropical depression Javier will enter the flow streaming northward. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding is expected as it reaches the Desert Southwest. Most of Arizona and New Mexico have issued a flood Watch. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php