Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 307 PM EST Sat Feb 09 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Feb 10 2019 - 00Z Tue Feb 12 2019 ...Series of winter storms will impact the West... ...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible from lower/middle Mississippi to the Tennessee Valleys... ...Potentially significant winter storm begins to take shape by Monday for the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and Northeast... The western U.S. will remain quite active during the short range as a series of winter storms moves inland. Snow levels will be lower than usual with these systems, with accumulating snow likely near sea level, including the Seattle and Portland metro areas. The hardest hit areas will be the higher terrain, particularly the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, where upwards of a foot or more of snow is expected. Gusty winds may result in brief blizzard conditions for some locations as well. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories remain in effect across much of the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the Intermountain West. A weak initial disturbance moving into the Upper Midwest will result in some light snow accumulations from the Northern Plains to the Midwest on Sunday. Behind this, a much stronger system ejects into the Rockies on Sunday, allowing for a surge of moisture to interact with a warm front lifting towards the Tennessee Valley and widespread showers and thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest rainfall is forecast to fall from Arkansas to western Kentucky as moisture pools along the surface boundary. More than an inch of rainfall is likely, and WPC has highlighted much of this region within a slight to moderate risk for flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. Along the northern edge of the precipitation shield, temperatures should be cold enough for snow or a wintry mix from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Monday, including the potential for freezing rain. A surface low pressure system taking shape across the Central Plains will bring another winter storm to the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast beginning by Monday evening and continuing beyond the short range period, with potentially significant snowfall expected. The coldest spot in the nation during the short range will remain across Montana into the Dakotas where forecast daytime highs near or below zero are 20 to 40 degrees below normal for this time of the year. The West will also remain below normal into next week, with near or below normal temperatures also expected across the Plains to the East on Sunday. Temperatures from the Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley should warm to above normal behind the advancing warm front on Monday. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php