Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 16 2019 - 00Z Tue Jun 18 2019 ...Repeated rounds of thunderstorms expected from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley with flash flood threat... ...Severe thunderstorms possible from the Southern Plains into portions of the Ohio Valley through Monday with an Enhanced Risk in place over Oklahoma and northwestern Texas today... Conditions will be prime for thunderstorms from the Southern Plains into Kansas and Missouri Ohio Valley through at least Monday in the vicinity of a slow moving front that extends from Iowa into northwestern Texas. A continuous flow of rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will keep high dewpoints in place from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley, reaching the northern Mid-Atlantic region during the day on Sunday. The front is expected to become rather diffuse with time, but will continue to provide a focus for convection, along with convectively driven outflow boundaries and impulses aloft. These thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rain along with severe weather, especially from northwestern Texas into Oklahoma this evening and tonight where the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms in place through Sunday morning. The severe threat shifts slightly east for Sunday, still covering much of Texas and Oklahoma, while extending northeastward into the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic region. Rainfall over the next 48 hours is expected to range from 3-5 inches over northern Texas into Oklahoma and from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into western Ohio, with flash flooding a good possibility, especially from central Illinois into portions of Ohio where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect. The rest of the nation will see conditions fairly typical for the middle of June. however, cooler than average temperatures will continue across North Dakota into the Great Lakes region on Sunday to the north of a strong cold front. Meanwhile, above average heat will remain out West where high temperatures are expected to range roughly 5-15 degrees above average from the West Coast states into Idaho and Nevada where chances for precipitation will be quite limited through early next week. Otto Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php