Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 03 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 05 2019 ...Hurricane Dorian is forecast to edge very slowly northwestward bringing multiple weather related hazards to the Southeast portion of the country... ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest with an embedded area of enhanced risk... ...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest, New England, and Florida's east coast... ...Record-breaking heat across portions of the Central Rockies into the Great Basin... Hurricane Dorian has stalled over the northern Bahamas for almost a day just east of Florida while slowly weakening into category-3 intensity. While impacts were undoubtedly devastating over the northern Bahamas, southeastern Florida has only been affected by occasional rain bands spiraling out from the core of Dorian about 100 hundred miles to the east. Dorian is forecast to begin moving toward the north-northwest just off the east coast of Florida today, reaching a position just off the South Carolina coast by Thursday morning. Squally showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the outer rain bands of Dorian is expected to spread northward along the coastal section of Florida east coast today, reaching the Georgia coastal sections by Wednesday morning, and into South Carolina and North Carolina later on Wednesday and into Thursday. Heavy rain could result in localized flooding across these areas. A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will begin to interact with the circulation of Dorian as the hurricane approaches the Carolina coasts. This will increase the chance of heavy rain near the coast beginning on Thursday. A front extending from Southeastern Canada into the Great Lakes roughly westward to the Northern Plains then into the Northern Rockies will move southeastward to the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast across the Tennessee Valley into the Southern Plains by Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over the Upper Midwest on Monday evening into Tuesday. Some of these storm will become severe and the rainfall associated with the storms may produce localized flash flooding. The showers and thunderstorms will move eastward to the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Wednesday evening. In addition, another front over the Mid-Atlantic into New England will move off the Northeast Coast by Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over the region Monday evening into Tuesday. Rainfall associated with the storms may produce localized flash flooding. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging over the Rockies into parts of the Northwest will aid in producing record-breaking the heat over the region. Temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees over parts of the Central High Plains into parts of the Great Basin on Monday evening. Furthermore due to the heat and upper-level ridging, Red Flag Warnings are up over part of the Northern/Central Rockies with Excessive Heat Watch over parts of the Southwest. Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest into the Great Basin during the late afternoon into the late evening on Monday into Wednesday. Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php