Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 04 2019 - 12Z Fri Sep 06 2019 ...Hurricane Dorian is forecast to move parallel but just off the southeastern U.S. the next couple of days, likely bringing high winds and heavy rain along the coast... ...A cold front is forecast to bring strong to severe thunderstorms across the Midwest and Great Lakes this evening... ...Newly formed Tropical Storm Fernand could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southern Texas and northeast Mexico through Thursday... The upper-level pattern across the U.S. continues to favor a broad trough over the eastern U.S. as a high pressure cell remains anchored over the High Plains. Meanwhile, after stalling for more than a day near the northern Bahamas and losing some intensity, Hurricane Dorian is now moving steadily north-northwestward just east of the Florida Peninsula. As Dorian moves closer toward the upper trough over the eastern U.S., the hurricane is expected to gradually turn toward the northeast tonight. This will bring the core of the hurricane very close to the coasts of North and South Carolina on Thursday. Squally showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the outer rain bands of Dorian are expected to gradually spread northward up the coastal section of northeastern Florida through tonight. Some of these squall will be accompanied with heavy downpours and even isolated tornadoes. A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will begin to interact with the circulation of Dorian on Thursday as the hurricane approaches the Carolinas. This will increase the chance of flooding from heavy rain near the Carolina coasts beginning Wednesday night, where a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall has been issued. Maximum total rainfall amounts across the Coastal Carolinas could reach 15 inches by Friday. Note that just a slight deviation to the left of the forecast track would bring higher winds and heavier rainfall along the coastal sections of the southeastern U.S. including Florida. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on Dorian. Tropical Storm Fernand has formed over the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning. This has led to an increase in showers and thunderstorms over southern Texas. Gusty winds and squally showers can be expected to continue across these areas over the next couple of days, which has prompted a slight risk for excessive rainfall to be issued. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on Fernand. Outside of Dorian and Fernand, the most active weather will be found across the Midwest and Great Lakes today in the form of showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches. These thunderstorms could become strong to severe from northern Illinois and Indiana to southern Michigan. By Wednesday, the storms should become more scattered as they spread into the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Showers will start to linger by Thursday across the Mid-Atlantic as the aforementioned cold front begins to interact with the circulation of Dorian. Over the interior western U.S., monsoonal moisture is making a comeback. Showers and thunderstorms, triggered by daytime heating and above normal temperatures, are expected to spread northward across the Desert Southwest ahead of an upper-level trough approaching from the eastern Pacific. By Thursday morning the showers should spread northward into the Great Basin. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php