Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 12 2021 - 12Z Sun Mar 14 2021 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday... ...Warm temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average found from the Southeast to the Northeast Friday... ...Critical risk of fire weather for central and southern New Mexico... ...Significant winter storm to begin Friday evening into Saturday morning across the Central Rockies and central High Plains... The stage is set for a significant winter storm to impact the central Rockies and the central High Plains as a cold upper-level low moving across the Southwest interacts with a stationary front across the central Plains during the next couple of days. The stationary front has lately become the focus for severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain across the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is lifted along the boundary. Meanwhile, the cold upper low moving into the Southwest will bring higher elevation snows from the Sierra Nevada to the Four-Corners region today, before ingesting additional Gulf moisture and then dumping more heavy rain again from the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley today into early Saturday. As the weekend progresses, increasing interaction of the upper low with the stationary front is forecast to bring a significant winter storm across the central Rockies and nearby High Plains. Snowfall amounts of a couple of feet is quite possible along the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming, and more than foot possible over the central High Plains. In addition, increasingly strong and gusty winds are expected to accompany the heavy snow by Sunday as the storm system is forecast to intensify more rapidly. Widespread travel impacts are likely as strong winds combined with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour could produce near blizzard conditions. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued and include southeast Wyoming, northeast and central Colorado, as well as western Nebraska. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will rise into the 60s and 70s across the East Coast. As the system propagates quickly northeast the northern half of the frontal boundary is expected to keep pace, dousing the Northeast in light to moderate rain into the early morning Saturday. Conversely, the southern half of the frontal boundary will more or less stall over an area extending from the Central/Southern Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will persist along the leading edge of the frontal boundary, some of which could become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of the Central Plains and Mississippi Valley through tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to be the main threats with these storms. The threat for severe weather will continue throughout the period, with the primary region of concern tomorrow being a Slight Risk area extending from the Texas Panhandle to southwestern Oklahoma, while central Texas, central Oklahoma and a portion of southern Kansas will be at greatest risk on Saturday. Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php