Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 13 2021 - 12Z Mon Mar 15 2021 ...A major winter storm is expected to impact the central Rockies and central High Plains throughout the weekend... ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding over portions of the central to southern Plains this weekend will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday... ...Critical fire danger for much of New Mexico and parts of western Texas... The stage is set for a rather energetic low pressure system to bring multiple forms of hazardous weather across the central portion of the country through the weekend, as a cold upper-level low exiting the Southwest interacts with a stationary front across the central Plains. The stationary front has continued to be the focus for bouts of severe thunderstorms together with locally heavy rain across the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley. The cold upper low is currently spreading higher elevation snows into the Four-Corners region of the southwestern U.S. As the upper low edges closer toward the central Plains today, snow will become heavier and will continue to expand into the central Rockies later today. Meanwhile, the intensifying storm will also ingest additional Gulf moisture and dump more heavy rain across the central Plains today. The heavy rain will then lift north and northwestward toward the central High Plains later today as the low pressure system intensifies further, as heavy snow with possibly blizzard conditions expected to envelop the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming. The storm should reach peak intensity on Sunday, bringing snowfall amounts of possibly 4 feet for the highest elevations while one to two feet would be quite common across the nearby central High Plains along the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming. Widespread travel impacts are likely as strong winds combining with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour to produce blizzard conditions for some areas. Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for much the central Rockies to the central High Plains. Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move across the southern Plains through the weekend ahead of a strong cold front associated with the intensifying low pressure system, reaching into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Monday. Out West, a deep cut-off upper-level low over the Southwest will be the driving force behind a significant winter storm set to impact the Central Rockies and the central High Plains throughout the weekend. Prior to the main event, heavy snow could fall across portions of the Central Great Basin and Southwest, with high elevation regions of Utah and Arizona likely to see six inches of snow by tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible over southern California and southwestern Arizona into the early morning hours. A low pressure system forming over the Central Great Basin Friday night will produce the first round of snow Friday into Saturday. As the weekend progresses, this low is forecast to join with the system in the Central Plains to produce a mature occluded cyclone, which will continue the heavy snowfall over the Central Rockies and the central High Plains through Sunday. By the end of the weekend, it is highly likely that one to two feet of snow will have fallen across the Front Range of northern Colorado, the Laramie Range in Wyoming, and the I-25 urban corridor, while accumulations of over a foot are possible over the central High Plains. Strong winds gusting from 30 to 40 mph are also expected to accompany the heavy snow fall rates of one to two inches per hour. This will create near blizzard conditions, making road and air travel difficult if not impossible. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for much of Wyoming and Colorado as well as northeastern Utah and the western portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Some light wintry precipitation ahead of a cold front is possible over interior New England early on Sunday. In the Upper Midwest, high temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal have been forecasted for Saturday. A cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest on Sunday will bring precipitation of all kinds to the region and northern California. Over the southern High Plains, dry conditions and gusty downslope winds south of the developing winter storm will promote elevated to critical fire danger across these areas into the weekend. Kong/Zavadoff Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php