Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 331 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 13 2021 - 12Z Mon Mar 15 2021 ...A major winter storm is expected to impact the central Rockies and central High Plains throughout the weekend... ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding over portions of the central to southern Plains this weekend will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday... ...Critical fire danger for much of New Mexico and parts of western Texas... The stage is set for a rather energetic low pressure system to bring multiple forms of hazardous weather across the central portion of the country through the weekend as a cold upper-level low exiting the Southwest interacts with a stationary front across the central Plains. The stationary front has been the focus for bouts of severe thunderstorms together with locally heavy rain across the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, the cold upper low is currently spreading higher elevation snows into the Four-Corners region of the southwestern U.S. As the upper low edges closer toward the central Plains today, snow will become heavier and will continue to expand into the central Rockies later today. The intensifying storm will also ingest additional Gulf moisture and dump more heavy rain across the central Plains today. The heavy rain will then lift north and northwestward toward the central High Plains later today as the low pressure system intensifies further. In the mean time, heavy snow with possibly blizzard conditions are expected to envelop the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming. The storm should reach peak intensity on Sunday, bringing snowfall amounts of possibly 4 feet for the highest elevations while one foot to two feet could be quite common across the nearby central High Plains. Widespread travel impacts are likely as strong winds combining with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour to produce blizzard conditions for some areas. Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for much the central Rockies to the central High Plains to the Black Hills of South Dakota. At the same time, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move across the southern Plains ahead of a strong cold front associated with the intensifying low pressure system, reaching into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Monday. In addition, dry and strong downslope winds to the south of the storm are expected to promote elevated to critical fire danger across the southern High Plains. Outside of the major storm system, some light wintry precipitation is expected over interior New England on Sunday as reinforcing shots of colder air move in from Canada. In contrast, much above normal temperatures are forecast to return for the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. Out West, an active cold front from the eastern Pacific is expected to bring the next round of unsettled weather into much of the West Coast beginning on Sunday. The Sierra Nevada could see heavy snow impacting the region Sunday night into Monday, as rain spreads into the lower elevations of northern and central California. Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php