Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 Valid 12Z Sat May 15 2021 - 12Z Mon May 17 2021 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains through Sunday morning... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest through Sunday morning... A quasi-stationary front extends from Middle Mississippi Valley westward to the Central/Southern High Plains, then into the Great Basin through Monday morning. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Plains and the Mississippi Valley that will help produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday. Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies into the Great Basin. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday. The main threats from the severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Upper Midwest will produce rain over the area through Saturday night. On Saturday, rain will develop over parts of the Great Lakes and the Northeast. On Sunday, the light rain will expand into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. An upper-level low will develop over parts of California on Saturday into Sunday that will move into parts of the Southwest/Great Basin overnight Sunday into Monday. The energy will produce scattered rain over parts of California. Additionally, as the upper-level low develops, dry conditions and gusty winds have led to a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest through Sunday morning. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php