Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Valid 12Z Sat May 22 2021 - 12Z Mon May 24 2021 ...Heavy rain and some gusty winds are expected across eastern Texas today after a low pressure center makes landfall across central Texas coast this morning... ...Thunderstorms could become severe ahead of a cold front through the High Plains for the next few days... ...Late-season mountain snow is expected to pick up once again across western Montana on Sunday... ...Critical Risks of fire danger remain in place for portions of the Four Corners region... Winds circulating around a large high pressure system centered over the eastern U.S. will continue to direct a stream of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico toward the western Gulf states. Meanwhile, a low pressure center that formed yesterday in the western Gulf of Mexico is now making landfall on the central Texas coast. The chance for the circulation to develop into a tropical cyclone is diminishing. However, the interaction of the circulation with land could trigger bouts of thunderstorms containing heavy downpours as it tracks further inland today. The low pressure area is expected to weaken and dissipate by tonight but the tropical moisture will continue to stream into eastern Texas for the remainder of the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms can be expected to form anytime under this unstable air mass. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is forecast to develop and intensify as it tracks generally northward across the Rockies through the weekend. A strong cold front associated with the system is expected to trigger thunderstorms across the High Plains during the weekend. Some of these storms could become severe especially during the late afternoon into early in the evening. are expected, and the Storm Prediction Center has Slight Risks of severe weather delineated through the weekend for portions of the High Plains. Behind the cold front, deep upper-level trough/low settling into the western U.S. is forecast to bring temperatures below normal for much of the western U.S. through the weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be generally 15 to 25 degrees below average for the Intermountain West, and parts of Montana could stay 25 to 30 degrees below average, with record lows possible as well there. These cold temperatures will support wet snow for higher elevations of the West. The heaviest snow is ending across the Northern Rockies and Winter Storm Warnings have expired, but some additional snow is still expected in higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada into the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies through the weekend as a low pressure system is forecast to intensify over Wyoming on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible for the north-central U.S. and over the Northeast through the weekend along meandering fronts. Farther south, gusty winds across the interior West together with dry conditions will continue to elevate the risk of wildfires. Critical fire risk is forecast for the Four Corners states through the weekend, while Elevated Risks are in place through this evening in the Southern High Plains and portions of California. Meanwhile, warmer than average temperatures are forecast to continue for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the next several days under the upper ridge, with highs rising well into the 80s and even into the 90s. Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php