Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 317 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 10 2021 - 12Z Sat Jun 12 2021 ...Heavy rain from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast... ...Scattered severe storms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening across the Northern Plains... ...Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions are in place across much of the Interior West... After a rather stagnant weather pattern over the past couple of days, things will begin to change more going into the end of the week. The persistent upper ridge that has been anchored over the central U.S. will now give way to a cold front exiting the Rockies that will emerge over the Plains and bring cooler temperatures to much of the High Plains. This same system will also increase the threat of severe weather across much of the Northern Plains on Thursday, where the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk of severe storms from western Nebraska to northeast Montana. Another cold front will be making southern progress across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region through the end of the week, bringing some welcomed relief to the recent hot weather for these areas by Thursday and especially on Friday. It will also be pleasantly cool for this time of year across the West Coast and Intermountain West region before a warming trend ensues for the weekend. The historic heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of Mississippi and Arkansas over the past couple of days will abate as the slow moving upper level disturbance slowly lifts away from this region. The greatest concern for heavy rainfall is now expected to be across portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia through Friday night. This is where the combination of a slow moving mid-upper level disturbance and a surface frontal boundary, in the presence of a very moist lower atmosphere, will produce widespread moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall totals are expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch range for many of these areas over the next two days. The opposite will be true across much of the Intermountain West and Rocky Mountains where enhanced wildfire concerns will exist owing to gusty winds and very low humidity levels. Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php