Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 20 2021 - 12Z Tue Jun 22 2021 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, and a Slight Risk over parts of the Southeast Coast with Tropical Depression Claudette through Monday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley and the Southeast with Tropical Depression Claudette through Monday morning... ...Dangerous and record-breaking heat wanes across California and the Southwest, while expanding into the Pacific Northwest on Monday... Tropical Depression Claudette is forecast to move roughly northeastward to the North Carolina Coast by Monday morning, redevelops into a Tropical Storm. Claudette will continue to move northeastward out over the Western Atlantic by Monday evening. Check the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center for the most up-to-date track and intensity of Claudette. Claudette will produce heavy rain over parts of the Southeast through Monday. As a result, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with Tropical Depression Claudette over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast on Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Additionally, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather associated with Claudette over the Southeast Coast through Monday morning. The hazards associated with the severe weather are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Meanwhile, a front extending from parts of the Northeast westward to the Central Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a boundary from the Middle Mississippi Valley eastward to the Lower Great Lakes on Sunday. As a result, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is a 10% or greater probability of two-inch or great hail over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Furthermore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley, also through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The front moves eastward on Tuesday to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast, then heads southwestward to the Southern Plains. The boundary will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms and the severe thunderstorm threat moves east with the boundary. The excessive rainfall threat decreases slightly on Tuesday with the front over the Northeast. Elsewhere, the western U.S. is also dealing with potentially dangerous weather, heat and fire weather. A long-duration heat wave has gripped the southwest corner of the U.S. and is expected to wane slightly on Sunday as the potential for record-breaking high temperatures decreases. However, there is a potential for record-breaking high minimum temperatures across the Southwest on Sunday and expanding into parts of the Northwest on Monday. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect throughout much of the Southwest, California, and the Great Basin. The combination of record heat and exceptional drought is also leading fire weather concerns throughout the Central/Southern Rockies into the Southwest. Red Flag Warnings are in effect across parts of Utah and western Colorado. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php