Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 08 2021 - 00Z Sat Jul 10 2021 ...Elsa to produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes across parts of southeast Georgia and South Carolina tonight, before pushing into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and Northeast by Friday... ...High Risk for Excessive Rainfall and the potential for life-threatening flash flooding found throughout portions of the middle and lower Texas Coast... ...Dangerous heat continues throughout much of the West, expanding into the Central Plains on Friday... Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall late this morning along the North Florida Gulf Coast and is continuing to track northward through northern Florida and into southern Georgia by tonight. Elsa is expected to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rain over southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina through early Thursday morning. Rainfall totals up to 8 inches across this region could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. A few isolated tornadoes are also possible. By Thursday, impacts from Elsa are forecast to shift into eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic, before reaching the Northeast and southern New England by Friday. Additional pockets of heavy rain and isolated instances of flash flooding can be expected between the Mid-Atlantic and New England, with periods of gusty winds found along coastal regions to the east of where the center of Elsa tracks. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for more information and the latest on Tropical Storm Elsa. Meanwhile, an abundance of tropical moisture and very little upper-level steering flow has produced an environment ripe for torrential downpours throughout parts of South Texas this evening and into Thursday. As much as 5 to 10 inches of additional rainfall is possible across this region, with a Moderate to High Risk of Excessive Rainfall along the middle and lower Texas Coast. Some areas have already received 8+ inches of rain over the last few days, which has severely compromised soils and low-lying areas prone to flooding. Widespread flash flooding is likely, with life-threatening situations possible. Rain chances are expected to continue through at least Friday afternoon. Farther north, a frontal boundary sliding eastward across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast will support showers and thunderstorms this evening capable of producing heavy rainfall and/or severe weather. The threat for flash flooding is forecast to increase across the Northeast on Thursday as the approaching frontal boundary begins to interact with moisture associated with Elsa. The western portion of this boundary could also bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains tonight and Thursday, shifting into the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday. Excessive heat continues across much of the Western U.S. as daytime highs soar into the 90s and lower 100s through the end of this week, with more daily records possible. Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Heat Advisories remain in effect across central California, the Southwest, and parts of the central/northern Great Basin. High temperatures into the upper 90s and close the century mark are forecast to shift into the Central Plains on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front, potentially reaching into record territory as well. For parts of the Northwest and Great Basin, the combined hot and dry conditions may lead to an elevated to critical risk for fire weather this evening and Thursday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php