Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 424 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 26 2021 - 00Z Wed Jul 28 2021 ...Main monsoon activity expected to abate by tomorrow... ...Excessively hot weather persists over Eastern Montana; sweltering heat lingers over the Southern Plains and Southeast... ...Scattered summer thunderstorms likely along and east of the Mississippi River... After a very active stretch of the Southwest Monsoon (one of the most active monsoon periods over the last several years), dry conditions are finally in sight for much of Arizona by tomorrow as a slow moving disturbance meanders off the California coast. Although the recent heavy rainfall has undoubtedly helped abate the Extreme to Exceptional drought in the region, additional showers and thunderstorms today atop areal rainfall averages of 2 to 5 inches since Thursday will support additional flash flood chances through tomorrow. Certain areas such as burn scars remain particularly sensitive to any heavy rain that falls. A Slight Risk of excessive rain is in effect over Central/Northwest Arizona today, and several Flash Flood/Flood Warnings dot the areas around the Phoenix and Tuscon metropolitan areas. Monday morning, the westward movement of the upper disturbance will bring shower chances over the California Desert and areas in the Great Basin, which should provide some much needed relief to the widespread drought in the region. The persistence of Pacific moisture will keep shower/thunderstorm chances in the Great Basin through much of next week. Moreover, clouds and thunderstorms should keep temperatures well below average for this time of year, with forecast high temperatures 10-15 degrees below average in some spots in the Southwest/Great Basin where rain develops. It's a different story on the periphery of the monsoon activity over the interior Northwest; Excessive Heat Warnings and Air Quality Alerts cover portions of southern Washington and Idaho through tomorrow. The heat is also expected East of the Rockies; all of East Montana is under an Excessive Heat Warning until Tuesday. Sweltering heat is also expected over portions of the Central Plains into the Southeast as a humid airmass ramps up heat indices to 105-110. Accordingly, Heat Advisories are currently in effect for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southern Plains, while an Excessive Heat Warning affects the Kansas City metro area. The same humid airmass responsible for the uncomfortable heat will also provide the fuel for scattered thunderstorm development over the next few days. A front swinging across the Plains into the Northeast will spark scattered thunderstorm development each day this over the Midwest and eventually Southeast. Another front tomorrow brings a shot of severe weather to Minnesota and Wisconsin, where a Slight Risk of severe weather is in effect tomorrow. Severe hail and damaging wind appear to be the main threats, but an isolated tornado is possible per the Storm Prediction Center. Off the East Coast of Florida, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of disturbed weather for potential development. Reports indicate the disturbance remains disorganized, but marginally conductive environmental conditions for development are noted ahead of the disturbance. Users are encouraged to monitor the NHC to receive the latest forecast information on this system. Some heavy rain is possible ahead of the disturbance today, as a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall remains over South Florida until tomorrow morning. Asherman Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php