Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Valid 00Z Fri Oct 01 2021 - 00Z Sun Oct 03 2021 ...Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding possible across the New Mexico into southern Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley over the next few days... ...Severe weather with large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of West Texas today... ...Well above average temperatures continue across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as cooler air surges into the central/southern Rockies... Overall the flow across the lower 48 remains generally weak with exception of fast moving storms/cold fronts clipping the Pacific northwest that today will produce 2-3 inches of rainfall across the Olympic Peninsula, while the next storm will approach the same area by the end of the short range forecast period on Saturday evening. Otherwise, the bigger weather producer is associated with upper-level closed low crossing the Central to Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains through the end of the week. An advancing cold front across the Central Plains will slowly advance today but begin to stall out and only slowly drift eastward across the Central and southern Plains by this weekend. Behind the front, anomalously cold air will keep day time highs running about 10-20 degrees below normal peaking across Colorado and northern New Mexico on Friday before staying cooler but more modified on Saturday. Ahead of the front will be slightly warmer, but the key element will be return above normal moisture crossing Texas into the southern/central Plains. Today, stronger thunderstorms will be in proximity to the dry line acorss West Texas with the threat of large hail and damaging wind with the Storm Prediction Center placing a Slight Risk (level 2/5) across this area. However, given slow cell motions and ample moisture, larger Slight Risk (level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall has been issued by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), with possible flash flooding across a broader area of much of Western to northwestern Texas; as well as a secondary area of threats over north-central New Mexico. A Marginal risk (level 1/4), expands further north into eastern Central Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley where flash flooding potential is possible but likely to be more widely scattered than in Texas/New Mexico. This threat for heavy rainfall, slowly advances east to Central Texas with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) and possible flash flooding on Friday becomes more isolated on Saturday across Missouri to East Texas (per Marginal Risk by WPC) North of the heavy rainfall threat, weak flow aloft will keep the Rockies front stalled across the eastern Northern Plains through the forecast period. Continued southerly flow will keep heat packed in with highs remaining 10-20 degrees above normal across the Upper Midwest toward the Great Lakes through Saturday. Another broader deeper cold closed low will continue to be stalled over far southeast Canada and continue to usher in colder Canadian air across the Northeast for the next two day. High temperatures in the 50s and 60s are above 7-15 degrees below average for much of New England while 70s across the eastern Mid-Atlantic keeping slightly below average but very fresh and pleasant before heat comes back for the weekend. Gallina Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php