Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Oct 08 2021

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 08 2021 - 12Z Sun Oct 10 2021

...Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding continues into this
morning across portions of the Southeast...

...Anomalous heat across the central/southern Plains will be contrasted
with mountain snows across the northern/central Rockies into this
weekend...

A slow-moving weather pattern across the eastern half of the country
continues to bring unsettled weather across the region.  The main focus of
heavy rain will remain be over portions of the Southeast this morning
where moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico will be lifted along a
stationary front.  The threat of heavy rainfall should gradually shift
eastward into the Carolinas later today where some locally heavy downpours
are possible although widespread heavy rain is not expected.  Farther
north across much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and into the
southern Appalachians, a slow-moving upper trough/low will help trigger
additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms containing locally heavy
downpours.  By the weekend, the rain is forecast to edge further eastward
toward the East Coast as a coastal low pressure system is forecast to
develop just off the Carolina coasts where the National Hurricane Center
is monitoring of a low potential for tropical cyclone development.  By
Saturday night into Sunday morning, the threat of heavy rain and gusty
winds could increase near the North Carolina coast as the low pressure
wave may strengthen and edge closer toward the coast.

For central and south-central sections of the U.S. mainland, a building
ridge of high pressure aloft will bring the potential of record-breaking
heat beginning today and continuing into the weekend, where high
temperatures are forecast to soar into the 90s across the central and
southern Plains. These temperatures equate to around 10 to 20 degrees
above average with the warmest day forecast to occur on Saturday.

Otherwise, a deep upper-level trough currently entering the West Coast is
expected to usher in below average temperatures and chances for
precipitation. Showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow is likely
to be found across parts of the Intermountain West and Northern/Central
Rockies over the next few days. A few instances of flash flooding are
possible between northern Nevada and southeast Idaho. By Saturday, as a
low pressure system ejects into the Northern Plains, isolated severe
thunderstorms are not out of the question across eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota.

Kong/Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php