Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 09 2021 - 12Z Mon Oct 11 2021

...A wavy front will bring showers, gusty winds, and coastal flooding
along the Mid-Atlantic through this weekend...

...Anomalous heat across the central/southern Plains this weekend will be
followed by strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday into early Monday...

...A surge of cold air behind a potent cold front will set the stage for
the first wintry weather event for the northern/central Rockies on
Monday...

An increasingly active weather pattern is taking shape across the U.S.
during the next few days as a rapid surge of cold air mass is forecast to
push through the western U.S. against a slow-moving front near the East
Coast while a couple of low pressure systems are forecast to form in the
mid-section of the country.  First of all, the slow-moving regime in the
eastern U.S. will continue to allow unsettled weather to persist through
the weekend and into early next week for much of the East Coast.  Waves of
low pressure are forecast to form near a stalled front.  The National
Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential of tropical cyclone
development amid these low pressure waves near the North Carolina coast
today into early Sunday.  Regardless, unsettled weather and gusty winds,
along with coastal flooding, can be expected along coastal sections of the
Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.  Farther north across much of the
Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and into the southern Appalachians, a
slow-moving upper trough/low will help trigger additional clusters of
showers and thunderstorms containing locally heavy
downpours.  These activities should decrease on Sunday as the upper trough
finally shows signs of dissipating.

For the central and south-central U.S. mainland, a building ridge of high
pressure aloft will bring the potential of record-breaking heat especially
today as high temperatures forecast to soar well into the 90s to near 100
across the central and southern Plains. These temperatures equate to
around 10 to 25+ degrees above average with the warmest day forecast to
occur on Saturday. Additionally, the warm temperatures combined with gusty
winds and low relative humidity may lead to elevated fire weather
concerns. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches have been issued
across parts of the central Plains and southern High Plains.

In contrast, a deep upper-level trough swinging through the western U.S.
will usher in below average temperatures and chances for precipitation
across much of the Intermountain West and Rockies through the beginning of
the weekend. In fact, snow is forecast for the highest mountain ranges.
Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are also expected for the lower
elevations, a few storms could turn severe and produce isolated flash
flooding between northern Nevada and southeast Idaho through tonight. By
Saturday, a developing low pressure system ejecting into the northern
Plains will likely bring a period of enhanced rainfall together with gusty
winds across the region. Isolated severe thunderstorms are not out of the
question for parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota from Saturday night into
early Sunday. As the aforementioned upper-level trough enters the southern
High Plains late on Sunday, severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of an
associated cold front situated between the middle Mississippi Valley and
southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe weather centered around Sunday evening across parts
of eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Kong/Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php