Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 11 2021 - 12Z Wed Oct 13 2021

...Severe weather and heavy rain over the southern Plains this morning
will spread towards the Great Lakes tonight...

...A powerful low pressure system is forecast to bring heavy mountain
snow, high winds and freezes to various parts of the West...

...Another severe weather outbreak anticipated for the central to southern
Plains on Tuesday...

The stage is set for a large and powerful low pressure system to form over
the mid-section of the country as an outbreak of cold air is surging into
the Pacific Northwest behind a sharp cold front.  The coldest air of the
season to date will be ushered into the western states today and into
Tuesday behind the sharp front, bringing high winds from the Great Valley
of California to the Desert Southwest, where High Wind Warnings and Wind
Advisories have been issued in advance for a heightened risk for hazardous
wind gusts.  An impressive upper-level trough will then interact with the
front to produce the first significant winter storm of the season for the
northern and central Rockies on Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Latest
snowfall forecast indicate anywhere from 12 to 24 inches (locally higher
amounts possible) in the northern Rockies, including ranges such as the
Wasatch, Uinta, Absaroka, Teton, Wind River, and Big Horns.  In addition,
high winds will likely result in blowing and drifting of the snow during
the height of the storm over parts of the northern and central Rockies
Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

In the meantime, a low pressure system currently bringing severe weather
and heavy rainfall across the central and southern Plains this morning
will head northeastward and reach the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.  The
severe storms should be most intense this morning over the Plains but they
should gradually weaken with time as they move into the Mississippi
Valley, the Midwest, and eventually the Great Lakes later today and
tonight. 
This upper trough becomes a vigorous upper low over the Four Corners
region Tuesday morning, setting the stage for yet another severe weather
outbreak in the southern and central Great Plains. The Storm Prediction
Center has an Enhanced Risk for severe weather from southern Nebraska and
central Kansas to parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. Excessive
Rainfall is also possible in parts of the Great Plains on Tuesday. While
severe weather erupts in the Plains and cold/snowy conditions take hold of
the West, the East remains under the influence of large scale upper level
ridging, forcing seasonally warm temperatures to stick around from the
Plains to the East Coast.

Kong/Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php