Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 13 2021 - 12Z Fri Oct 15 2021

...First winter storm of the season spreading heavy snow into the northern
High Plains today along with high winds...

...Severe weather and heavy rain over the central today will taper off
some as they spread into the upper Midwest tonight...

...Moisture drawn northward from Hurricane Pamela will enhance heavy rain
threat across the southern Plains tonight...

The most active weather during the short-range period will be found today
across much of the Great Plains as low pressure system continues to
intensify and reach peak intensity tonight.  As the intense storm is
responsible for the first winter storm of the season currently in progress
across the northern High Plains where heavy snowfall of an additional a
foot is possible near the adjoining borders of the Dakotas, Wyoming, and
Montana along with very strong and gusty winds.  Winter Storm Warnings and
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for much of the northern High
Plains.  Strong winds with gusts up to 60 mph are also expected to
accompany this storm as it intensify further while tracking towards the
northern Plains. High Wind Warnings are currently in effect for a large
section of the northern Plains.

In addition to the wintry weather, severe thunderstorms are expected to
sweep across much of the central and southern Plains today ahead of a
vigorous cold front.  By tonight, moisture being drawn northward from
Hurricane Pamela currently about to make landfall in western Mexico will
enhance the threat heavy rain across the southern Plains as the tropical
moisture interacts with the cold front.  An axis of 2 to 3 inches of rain
with locally higher amounts is forecast to extend from southwestern Texas
towards eastern Oklahoma.  The threat of heavy rain may extend into
Thursday night in portions of these areas as the front is forecast to
become nearly stationary.

Throughout the short-range period a large temperature contrast will be
found across the country.  High pressure locked in place over the eastern
seaboard will allow moderately above normal temperatures to persist across
the eastern US, while the storm system out west will advect cool air south
from higher latitudes, dropping daily highs 20 to 30 degrees below average
into the 30s and 40s.  Freeze Watches and Warnings are currently in effect
over portions of the Southwest and Central Great Basin.

Kong/Zavadoff


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php