Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 29 2021 - 00Z Sun Oct 31 2021

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Olympic
Peninsula and the Northern Cascades through Friday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic Coast through Friday morning...

...There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Plains...

A cold front moving into the Pacific Northwest will stream moisture into
parts of northwestern Washington State, producing rain over parts of the
Olympic Peninsula and the Northern Cascades through Friday evening, with
the rain being heavy at times. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Olympic Peninsula and the Northern
Cascades through Friday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.  The intensity of the moisture coming
off the Pacific weakens on Friday morning; consequently, the threat of
excessive rainfall ends on Friday.  Moreover, the associate cold front
will move eastward to the Upper Midwest to the Central Rockies, then into
the Great Basin and California by Saturday.  The moisture pooling along
the cold front will produce light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest
and Northern California on Friday into Saturday.

However, a deep area of low pressure over parts of the Middle/Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys will slowly move northeastward to the
northern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday evening. The associated cold front will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast and southern
Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning; some of the
thunderstorms will be severe.  Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast and southern
Mid-Atlantic Coast through Friday morning.  The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornadoes, and minimal risk for hail.

The system will also produce rain over parts of the Upper Midwest into the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.  The storm will pull moisture off the Atlantic
and, to a lesser extent, from the Gulf of Mexico.  The system will produce
mainly rain over parts of the eastern third of the country, with the rain
being heavy at times.  Accordingly, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Central
Appalachians on Friday into Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most.  On Saturday, the threat of excessive
rainfall decreases to a Marginal Risk over parts of the Northeast.

Meanwhile, a narrow corridor of dry and breezy northwesterly surface wind
develops over parts of the Southern Plains, producing an area favorable
for fire weather through Saturday morning; hence region of Elevated Risk
of fire weather is over the Southern Plains.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php