Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Nov 04 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 05 2021 - 00Z Sun Nov 07 2021

...More rain, high elevation snow, and blustery winds moving into the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies...

...A developing low pressure system expected to bring and increasing
threat of thunderstorms and gusty winds across Florida and along the
southeastern U.S. coast through Saturday...

...First freeze of the season arriving across the interior Deep South,
Tennessee Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic...

More unsettled weather is in store for the northwestern quadrant of the
mainland U.S. as a parade of Pacific storm systems is forecast to move
onshore, delivering rain and high elevation snow from the coast to the
Rockies.  The relatively moisture-rich cold front associated with these
systems could deliver as much as 1-2+" of rain to low lying coastal areas
from northern California to the Olympic Peninsula as well as some heavy
snow to the Washington Cascades.  As the front moves further inland
throughout the day light to moderate rain showers and the coincident high
elevation snow will also spread east into the Northern Great Basin and
Northern Rockies. Without skipping a beat the second system will reach the
coastline Friday morning, bringing with it another helping of rain and
snow. Though precipitation totals are not expected to be as high as those
with the previous system, a drop in snow levels to around 3000-4000 ft
will allow snow to accumulate at lower elevations throughout the Cascades
and the Olympic Mountains.

In the mean time, a cool high pressure system is forecast to dominate the
weather pattern for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country into the
weekend.  In fact, the first freeze of the season is forecast to continue
for the next couple of mornings across the interior Deep South, Tennessee
Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic.  As the high pressure system remains
nearly stationary across the central and eastern U.S., a low pressure
system is forecast to gradually develop in the Gulf of Mexico near a
stationary front during the next couple of days.  This system will track
east-northeast across the Gulf of Mexico into Friday and then across the
Florida Peninsula Friday night as the storm gradually intensifies.  Much
of Florida will see an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms
through Friday, with the southern half of the Peninsula possibly seeing
the thunderstorms becoming severe Friday night with heavy downpours and
damaging wind gusts as a dynamic cold front approaches.  The intensifying
low pressure system will likely head northeastward just off the
southeastern U.S. coast later on Saturday with gusty winds and some heavy
rain possible near/along the coast.

In stark contrast to the cold spell in the central and eastern U.S.,
upper-level ridging out West has allowed above normal temperatures to
overspread much of the the western U.S. to the northern Plains with
temperatures topping 10 to 20 degrees above normal. As the ridge
progresses eastward on Friday it will spread the warm weather into the
upper Midwest and central Plains while also providing some relief to the
eastern U.S. by moderating temperatures back closer to average.

Kong/Zavadoff


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php