Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 18 2022 - 12Z Thu Jan 20 2022

...Heavy snow for parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
High Plains on Tuesday...

...There is a Risk of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

Low pressure over the Northern Plains will move eastward across the Great
Lakes overnight Tuesday and into Ontario, Canada, by Wednesday morning,
then into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday. By Thursday, the associated
front will move eastward to just off the Northeast Coast and across the
Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast. The system will produce heavy snow
across parts of Upper Mississippi Valley, near Lake Superior and Michigan
s Upper Peninsula, on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Light snow will move
into the Lower Great Lakes overnight Tuesday and into Northern New England
on Wednesday into Thursday morning. In the wake of the system, lake effect
snow will develop downwind from the Great Lakes.

Meanwhile, warm air ahead of the boundary will produce temperatures 10 to
25 degrees above average over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on
Tuesday. Additionally, the warm temperatures, gusty wind, and dry fuels
have led to an area of Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Southern High Plains.

In the meantime, the western portion of the front will produce light snow
over parts of the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Tuesday. In
addition, overnight Tuesday, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will
start to pool along the boundary over the eastern portion of the front,
developing rain over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. However, light snow will develop over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley starting late Wednesday afternoon.
Along the rain/snow line, areas of light rain/freezing rain will develop
over parts of the Southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Overnight
Wednesday, the snow will expand into parts of the Ohio Valley into parts
of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, the rain over
the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys moves into parts of the
Southern Appalachians and parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday morning.

Furthermore, weak onshore flow will produce light rain over parts of the
Pacific Northwest and some snow at the higher elevations into late Tuesday
night. Energy moving across the Southwest into the Southern Plains will
aid in producing light snow over parts of the Central Rockies on Tuesday
and Wednesday, with the light snow moving into parts of the Southern
Rockies on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

Lastly, in the wake of the winter storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast, light snow will linger over parts of the Central Appalachians
into parts of the Northeast that will end by Tuesday evening.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php