Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 21 2022 - 00Z Sun Jan 23 2022

...Arctic blast to engulf much of the central and eastern U.S. in bitterly
cold temperatures...

...Significant Ice Storm in parts of the Carolinas; treacherous wintry
weather possible in parts of the Deep South...

...Light snow in the Intermountain West Friday; passing snow showers in
the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes Saturday...

A strong cold front ushered in an Arctic air-mass that is engulfing much
of the central and eastern U.S. this afternoon. Daytime highs from the
Midwest to South Texas are forecast to range between 15 to 30 degrees
below normal with subzero wind chills throughout much of the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Wind Chill Advisories remain in effect for parts of
the region tonight and into early Friday. Bitterly cold temperatures will
stretch all the way to the East Coast tonight and into the start of the
weekend. Friday morning lows will range between 0 to -10 in the Upper
Midwest and northern New England. Friday's high temperatures will struggle
to get out of the single digits in northern New England while the rest of
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic reach the teens and 20s. Much of the South
will contend with abnormally cold temperatures both Friday and Saturday
while Florida's surge of below normal temperatures arrives on Saturday.
Saturday morning lows throughout the interior Northeast will be subzero
with even colder wind chills. The warmest temperature departures Friday
and Saturday reside along the West Coast and the northern High Plains.

Farther to the south, southwesterly flow aloft overrunning the Arctic
air-mass in the South will generate icy precipitation from South Texas and
the central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas. Ice accumulations of a tenth of
an inch and under an inch of snow are possible in South Texas tonight and
into Friday morning, prompting the issuance of a Winter Storm Warnings. A
little farther north, closer to the San Antonio and Austin metro areas,
Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for the threat of a glaze of
ice causing hazardous travel conditions. Winter Weather Advisories are
also in effect for parts of the central Gulf Coast from this evening
through Friday morning for a light glaze of ice that could make for
slippery travel. The worst winter weather is expected in the Southeast
where a longer period of freezing rain and sleet, as well as measurable
snowfall, is forecast tonight and into not just Friday, but also into
Saturday. The bulk of the freezing rain and sleet accumulations are
expected to occur the second half of the day Friday and into Friday night
as a deepening upper trough positioned over the Mid-South approaches the
Southeast. An Ice Storm Warning has been posted for parts of southern
North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina where 0.2-0.3" of ice
accumulation is likely with locally higher totals possible. These
locations are most at risk downed trees and power lines. Farther north in
eastern North Carolina, Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for a
combination of treacherous snow and ice accumulations. Lastly, Southeast
Virginia is forecast to receive measurable snowfall with totals ranging
from 3-6" possible Friday night into Saturday.

Elsewhere, the Intermountain West watches an upper level disturbance track
south through the Great Basin tonight and into Friday. Moisture starved,
this snowfall will be limited to the higher elevations of the Rockies with
totals surpassing 6" most likely in the highest peaks. Some light rain and
snow showers are possible in the Pacific Northwest early on this evening
before drying out as high pressure build in for Friday. The aforementioned
upper trough becomes a cut-off low in the Desert Southwest on Saturday,
keeping any rain and snow shower activity confined to primarily Arizona
and New Mexico. Lastly, farther north, a fast moving frontal system will
trigger snow showers throughout the upper Great Lakes on Saturday with
light snow accumulations expected. Another wave of low pressure follows on
its heels as it tracks into the Dakotas Saturday evening with more snow
showers for the North Central U.S..

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php