Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 PM EST Thu Feb 03 2022 Valid 00Z Fri Feb 04 2022 - 00Z Sun Feb 06 2022 ...An ongoing significant winter storm is expected to impact much of the central and northeastern U.S. through Friday night... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast through Friday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast through Friday morning... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average west of the Great Lakes and Mississippi River; Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average along parts of the East Coast... A strong cold front extending from the Northeast to the Central Gulf Coast will move eastward off most of the East Coast by Saturday morning. The front producing a broad prolonged significant winter storm will shift into the Northeast Thursday night with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The freezing rain over the Mid-South will progress northeastward into the Northeast Thursday evening, where significant ice accumulation is possible from central Pennsylvania eastward into the Catskills in New York. The snow/rain/freezing rain could make for difficult travel conditions along with some power outages and tree damage. Heavy snow totals are expected from the Lower Great Lakes through much of interior New York state eastward into central and northern New England, where snowfall rates could exceed 1-2 inches per hour overnight into early Friday. Locations impacted by snow and/or ice from this storm will experience below-freezing temperatures into the weekend. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. As a result, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the region through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The severe thunderstorm risk will reduce to Marginal Risk over parts of the Southeast Coast on Friday. Moreover, heavy rain will develop along the boundary. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with the rain over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most impacted. On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall is over. However, a frigid air mass will be over the Plains in the front's wake. As a result, high temperatures for many places across the Plains and Mississippi Valley will be between 10 to 25 degrees below average west of the Great Lakes and Mississippi River. Therefore, the public is encouraged to plan for prolonged hazardous winter weather conditions and disrupted travel. In contrast, temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average along the East Coast into Friday morning ahead of the front. Furthermore, upper-level energy and weak onshore flow will aid in producing coastal rain and higher elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest and light snow over the Northern Intermountain Region into the Northern/Central Rockies through Saturday morning. A fast-moving front over the Northern High Plains will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Friday and dissipate overnight Friday. The system will produce light snow over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday evening into the Upper Great Lakes through Friday evening. In addition, a second stronger low will develop along the front over the Northern Plains on Saturday and move into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday evening. The system will produce additional light snow over parts of the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday evening. Ziegenfelder/Kebede Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php