Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 13 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 15 2022

...Light snowfall to impact parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England today...

...Light snow enters Upper Midwest this evening as lake-effect snow
showers continue downwind from the Great Lakes...

...Above average and record-breaking temperatures likely throughout
California before cooler air arrives by Tuesday...

...Unsettled weather to enter the Northwest and Northern Rockies by the
beginning of the workweek...

Following the passage of a strong cold front, a strengthening upper-level
jet streak over the Northeast has led to an area of light-to-moderate snow
that extends from the central Appalachians to the Northeast this morning.
With temperatures starting near or above freezing, most locations will
initially experience snow only accumulating to grassy and elevated
surfaces. However, areas slightly higher in elevation northwest of the
I-95 corridor will have the greatest potential for slick roadways into the
late morning hours. Snowfall totals are generally expected to remain under
4 inches, with locally higher totals possible in the Shenandoah region of
Virginia. As an area of low pressure begins to strengthen off the East
Coast today, it will slowly draw the band of snow eastward and eventually
exit the region early Sunday night. Portions of southern New England, more
specifically Cape Cod and eastern Massachusetts, could see snow linger
into Sunday night. This will also allow for slightly higher snowfall
amounts and the potential for totals to near 6 inches.

Elsewhere, a few weak and moisture-starved areas of low pressure are
forecast to swing across the Midwest over the next couple of days. The
first system is set to move from the Central Plains into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley today, with a swath of light snow possible to the
north from central Illinois to southern Indiana. The next area of low
pressure is expected to enter North Dakota by tonight and spread light
snow throughout the Upper Midwest into early Monday. Snowfall totals from
these two systems are anticipated to remain under 2 inches, with the
greatest amounts most likely found throughout northern Minnesota and
northeast North Dakota. Simultaneously, continues cold air advection over
the Great Lakes will lead to scattered lake effect snow showers over the
region. Locally heavier snow is possible downwind of Lake Michigan, with
amounts potentially exceeding 4 inches throughout far southwest Michigan.

The frigid airmass located over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this morning
is expected to moderate by Monday, while below average temperatures expand
across much of the eastern United States through the beginning of the
week. Wind Chill Advisories remain in effect across parts of the Dakotas
and northern Minnesota, where wind chills could drop as low as 30 below
zero. Farther west, an early taste of spring continues for much of
California as highs soar into the 70s and 80s. High temperatures into the
low 90s are possible for southern California, which has prompted Heat
Advisories to remain in effect. These warm temperatures will also have the
potential to break several daily record highs. Additionally, the
combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds may also lead to
elevated fire weather in this region. The persistent upper-level ridge
responsible for the record-breaking warmth is finally forecast to break
down on Valentine's Day as a strong storm system enters the Pacific
Northwest. Coastal/lower elevation rain showers and mountain snow is
likely to spread over the Northwest, Northern Great Basin, and Northern
Rockies through Tuesday.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php