Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 20 2022 - 00Z Tue Feb 22 2022

...Winter Storm to bring heavy mountain snows in the Northwest on Sunday,
spreading into the northern Plains by Monday...

...Near record cold airmass settles into the northern Plains by Monday...

...Elevated to critical fire weather threat across the southern and
central High Plains...


A cold front dropping into parts of the northern Plains and the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes will bring some initial light snow showers
to parts of the region on Sunday. This cold front will usher in a very
cold airmass beginning on Sunday with daytime highs 20-30 degrees below
normal by Monday and record or near record values possible. This arctic
blast will set the stage for a winter storm to impact the region beginning
early Monday.

A storm system diving into the Northwest U.S. will bring periods of heavy
mountain snows to the Cascades and the northern/central Rockies on Sunday
and Monday, with rain along the coast and in the valleys. The main upper
level energy should then spill eastward, inducing an area of surface low
pressure along the above mentioned cold front. To the north, heavy snow
will begin spreading into the northern Plains overnight Sunday-Monday and
into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Snowfall accumulations in
excess of 6 inches are likely from northern South Dakota into central
Minnesota through Monday evening (but will continue into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes beyond the short range period as well). Gusty winds
across the northern tier may also create blowing and drifting snow, making
travel difficult at times. Winter storm watches and advisories are already
in place across parts of this region. To the south, as the upper trough
axis shifts across the Western U.S. on Monday, it should begin tapping
return flow moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico with rain and thunderstorms
increasing in coverage on Monday across the central Gulf Coast states.

South of the cold front, temperatures from the central/southern Plains
into the East will be above to much above normal Sunday and Monday. The
greatest anomalies near 20 degrees above normal will equate to daytime
highs near or exceeding 80 degrees in some locations across Texas and
Oklahoma. These warm temperatures, combined with gusty winds and dry
conditions, will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns Sunday
and Monday, especially across the central/southern High Plains. 

Santorelli


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php