Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Mon Mar 07 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 07 2022 - 12Z Wed Mar 09 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding possible for much
of the eastern third of the country today...

...Record-breaking warmth expected to continue throughout East Coast
today...

...Cold front entering the Northwest will generate heavy snowfall over the
Northern Rockies through Tuesday...

A cold front will be the focus for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across
parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic today. A Slight Risk of heavy
rainfall leading to flash flooding is in effect for portions of the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today. Flood Watches, Warnings and Advisories
are in effect for these areas as well. A Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms is also in effect for much of the Central/Southern
Appalachians, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, due to
the interaction of the very warm/moist airmass currently in place in the
East and the approaching cold front from the West. Damaging wind gusts
will be the main concern with any severe weather that occurs. This warm
airmass will be responsible for the possible tying or breaking of
temperature records across the East Coast, from New York City to central
Florida, today. High temperatures are expected to be between 20-30 degrees
above average for much of the Mid-Atlantic, with some isolated areas
possibly eclipsing 30 degree anomalies. Meanwhile, to the west, high
pressure will settle in and allow for the expansion of colder air over the
Rockies, Plains and Mississippi Valley today. The southern portion of the
East Coast cold front will stall out tonight, which will allow for the
development of a new surface low pressure system. This new system will tap
more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and dump it in the form of heavy
rain and scattered thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast beginning on Tuesday.

The emergence of a shortwave from western Canada will push a cold front
down through the Northwest tonight. Surface waves will develop along this
boundary and trigger periods of heavy snow over the Northern/Central
Rockies through Tuesday. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for parts
of central Montana. Frigid air will begin expanding over the Northern
Plains/Rockies on the backside of the south-moving cold front on Tuesday.
This cold airmass will continue its southward expansion through midweek.
Southern/central Texas will have high temperatures well below average on
Tuesday thanks to the extension of a northern ridge axis over the region.


Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php