Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EST Wed Mar 09 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 10 2022 - 00Z Sat Mar 12 2022

...Heavy snow expected over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies and
Central Plains through Friday morning...

...Threats of severe weather and heavy rain will persist over the
Southeast through the remainder of the work week...

...Frigid temperatures return to much of the central US as an Arctic
airmass descends over the Great Plains...

...Fire weather concerns continue for parts of the Southern High Plains...

A very active weather pattern is in store for much of the CONUS over the
next couple days largely due to a pair of slow moving frontal boundaries.
The first, which extends from the Great Lakes through the Great Plains and
Intermountain West, will be responsible for the latest round of
appreciable snowfall over the Central/Southern Rockies and Central Plains.
Enhanced moisture availability combined with instability along and behind
the front has prompted snowfall accumulation forecasts of 4 to 8 inches
for an area encompassing northeastern Colorado, locations adjacent to the
Nebraska/Kansas border, and northwestern Missouri. Winter Storm Warnings
and Winter Weather Advisories are currently in effect for portions of the
Central/Southern Rockies, Central Plains, and western Middle Mississippi
Valley. The southward progression of the frontal boundary over the next
couple days will allow for surface high pressure to descend into and build
over the Great Plains, carrying with it a frigid Arctic airmass that is
forecast to drop daily high and low temperatures as much as 20 to 30
degrees below normal for much of the central US on Thursday and Friday.
For areas out of reach of the invading oppressive cold temperatures are
forecast to remain at or near normal into the weekend.

The second of the two high-impact frontal boundaries can be found over the
Southeast and is forecast to remain there into the weekend. An abundance
of available atmospheric moisture will allow for moderate to heavy
rainfall to develop along the front with rain rates reaching 1 to 2 inches
per hour in some areas. These high rain rates combined with 24 hour
rainfall totals of 1 to 2+ inches has prompted the issuance of a Marginal
Risk of Excessive Rainfall by the Weather Prediction Center for portions
of the Southeast that will be maintained into the weekend. Thunderstorms
are also expected to accompany the heavy rainfall, some of which may
become severe due to the presence of sufficient instability over the
region. Given the potential for damaging wind gusts, isolated hail, and
few tornadoes to develop within these thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms from northenr
Florida to eastern South Carolina through tomorrow morning. The risk of
severe weather is forecast to drop off on Friday as the environment
becomes less favorable for the development of strong thunderstorms, though
isolated instances of damaging winds gusts will be possible.

Elsewhere, high winds associated with a low pressure wave are expected to
pass over moderately dry fuels in the Southern High Plains. With ambient
relative humidity values forecast to remain low throughout the day, the
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Critical Fire Weather threat
area from southern New Mexico through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect for portions of the far northern
and far western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, respectively. These
environmental conditions are expected to persist over southern New Mexico
and western Texas tomorrow, prompting the maintenance of an Elevated Fire
Weather threat area over these regions into Friday. Meanwhile, light to
moderate snowfall associated with a coastal low is forecast to taper off
over the Central Appalachians and Northeast this evening. Widespread
additional accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated
higher totals of 6 to 8 inches likely at higher elevations. A mix of
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from
central Pennsylvania through western New England, which are set to expire
later this evening.

Zavadoff


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php