Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 10 2022 - 12Z Sat Mar 12 2022

...Moderate to heavy snow over portions of the Southern Rockies and
Central Plains this morning...

...There are Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms
over parts of the Southeast on Friday night...

...Cold air expands over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through
Friday...

...Increasing confidence in Winter Storm to impact portions of
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys through interior eastern U.S late Friday through
Saturday....

An amplifying upper-trough will contribute to hazardous weather for
central and eastern parts of the country in the coming days. A low
pressure system over the Rockies will continue to generate heavy mountain
snow over portions of the Southern Rockies as well as moderate to locally
heavy snow over parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley
this morning. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are in effect for these
areas as an additional 4-8 inches are possible. Snow accumulations
exceeding a foot are likely over mountain peaks in the Southern Rockies.
Gusty winds may accompany some of the heavy snow in southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico today, so blowing snow may be of concern to commuters
in those areas. Some light snow may extend into the Midwest by this
evening. Arctic air will flow into the Rockies and Plains today on the
backside of the Rockies/Plains system. High temperatures will be between
15-25 degrees below average. A secondary cold front will sweep through the
Rockies and Plains on Friday, bringing in another shot of Arctic air to
the region. Highs will be between 20-30 degrees below average over the
Great Plains, with parts of North Dakota potentially failing to make it
out of the single digits.

Light to moderate rain and scattered to isolated thunderstorms will affect
parts of the Southeast beginning today along a quasi-stationary front
draped across the Gulf Coast. The amplifying upper trough will arrive in
the east on Friday, leading to the rapid intensification of a surface low
pressure system over the Southeast later that day. This deep trough will
tap into a rich plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and direct it
toward the Southeast. Moderate to heavy rainfall will develop over the
Florida panhandle through to the Georgia coast on Friday night as a
result. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is
in effect for those areas. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and a few tornadoes are also possible from coastal Alabama
and the Florida panhandle to the southeastern coast of North Carolina,
where the Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms. Unfortunately, the severe weather threat may persist into
Saturday morning before the system quickly moves offshore.

A piece of shortwave energy embedded within the amplifying upper trough
will spin through southern Canada and into the Great Lakes over the coming
days. This shortwave will allow for strengthening and progression of a
surface low pressure system during this time. This system is forecast to
produce heavy snow over parts of the Ohio Valley and interior eastern U.S.
beginning Friday night and continuing through Saturday. Heavy snow, gusty
winds and severely reduced visibility will make for hazardous to difficult
driving conditions and travel at times, particularly across the interior
Northeast. The greatest accumulations, in excess of 12", are likely across
portions of the interior Northeast. Much colder air will spread across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic in the wake of this storm system.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php