Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 15 2022 - 00Z Thu Mar 17 2022

...Severe weather possible over Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex on Monday
and across northern Florida through Tuesday morning...

...Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern High
Plains today...

...Additional heavy precipitation possible across the Northwest Monday
into Tuesday and across northern Florida Tuesday into Wednesday...

Temperatures across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic are starting to
moderate in the wake the winter storm system that brought a cold blast and
widespread snow to a last part of the eastern third of the country. A wave
of low pressure passing through the central U.S. will produce a narrow
swath of precipitation from south-central Minnesota to northern Michigan,
which will mostly be in the form of snow with several inches of
accumulation. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from eastern
Minnesota to northern Michigan. Periods of snow will reach northern New
England tonight with only minor accumulations expected.

Low pressure will strengthen as it moves east from the Southern Plains,
triggering scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
ArkLaTex region. SPC has identified the threat for damaging winds, large
hail and potentially tornadoes with these storms and have a Slight Risk in
effect through Tuesday morning. In addition to the potential severe
weather, periods of heavy rainfall is expected across much of the Deep
South with areal averages of at least 1 inch. As this system progresses to
the east along the Gulf Coast so will the threat for severe storms and
heavy rain. Strong-to-severe storms are likely from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to south-central Florida with damaging winds and
tornadoes/water spouts possible. Some storms may also produce excessive
rainfall rates, prompting the issuance of a Marginal Risk for flash
flooding in parts of northern and central Florida on Tuesday.

Dry conditions will linger across portions of southern New Mexico and the
adjacent Southern High Plains. Low humidity and high wind gusts will keep
much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with an elevated risk for the
development/spread of wildfires. SPC has this part of the country
highlighted as having a Critical Risk for fire weather; local forecast
offices also have a few Red Flag warnings. The threat is expected to
lessen on Tuesday. Further north across the Central Plains favorable fire
weather conditions will return; SPC has an Elevated Risk for parts of
northern Nebraska on Tuesday. The Pacific Northwest will be wet and
unsettled over the next few days as two Pacific storm systems move inland
and spread 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to the Coastal Range of
California and western Oregon. The higher elevations of the Cascades,
Olympics, Sawtooths, Bitterroots, and northern Rockies of western Montana
could see a few inches of snow. The heaviest totals are forecast in the
Washington Cascades where two the three feet of snow is possible in the
highest elevations over the next couple days.

Across the nation most of the temperatures will moderate and begin to feel
more like Spring. Daily highs will be 15 to 25 degrees warmer than
seasonal average from the Texas Panhandle to the Lower Great Lake by
Wednesday. In contrast, the Northwest and the Central Rockies will be
chilly given the active storms and precipitation. Look for the warming
trend to reach the East Coast by Wednesday with highs in the 60s
throughout the Mid-Atlantic.

Campbell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php