Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 05 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 05 2022 - 12Z Thu Apr 07 2022 ...Widespread high winds impacting the northern Rockies and High Plains will shift eastward and persist across the northern Plains through midweek... ...Heavy to excessive rain and severe thunderstorm threat expands across much of the South for the next couple of days before moving up the East Coast by Wednesday... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk will expand across portions of the High Plains with record heat also possible in parts of south Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday... A potent low pressure system in conjunction with a powerful cold front is currently impacting much of the northern to central Rockies into the High Plains with high winds gusting to hurricane force especially especially near mountain passes and the foothills. The high winds will be accompanied with snow, heavy at times, over the higher elevations this morning before gradually tapering off tonight into Wednesday morning. The heaviest snow is expected to occur farther west along the northern Cascades as the snow gradually tapers off today with final accumulations likely measured in feet. This system will begin to reorganize and expand its size over the northern Plains as it wraps around and interact with colder air from Canada. The mixed rain and snow initially over the northern Plains is forecast to change over to all snow and then persist across the eastern portion of the Dakotas into Minnesota into midweek with strong winds as the system expands its influence. By Thursday morning, much of the Plains and the Great Lakes will be engulfed by this expansive cyclone. As the cyclone expands over the northern Plains, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an intensifying cold front later on today as it sweeps across the upper Midwest. As the cold front forces its way toward the eastern U.S., showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday before reaching the Appalachians by Thursday morning with strong and gusty winds. Meanwhile, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to surge north toward the southern tier states and is converging with a cold front moving into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to further expand in coverage and intensify today and advance eastward from the southern Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley. As the warm front lifts across the south, expect storms to spread into the Deep South and the Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. Given ample instability, severe weather as well as heavy to excessive rainfall are possible. SPC highlights these regions within a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms and WPC has a slight risk for flash flooding. See the outlooks from SPC and WPC for additional details. Farther north, showers and storms will also expand into the Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday into Wednesday. A compact low pressure system is forecast to intensify near the Carolina coast by Wednesday morning with a period of enhanced rainfall and gusty winds near its track. Fire weather will also become an increasing threat across the High Plains as very dry conditions and gusty winds behind the developing storm system into the Central/Eastern U.S.. SPC shows and elevated to critical fire weather threat through Tuesday and into Wednesday all the way from northeast Montana southward to West Texas and eastern New Mexico. In terms of temperatures across the CONUS over the short range period, well above average highs are likely Tuesday across much of the Southern Plains, with widespread 80s and 90s (possibly reaching near 100 in south Texas) and a handful of record high temperatures possible across Texas. By Wednesday, the warmth moves into the South and Eastern U.S., with daytime highs as much as 10 to 20 degrees above normal for some places. The cold front across the West and into the Midwest will usher in much below normal temperatures across the Rockies on Tuesday and into the northern/central Plains on Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures across the Southwest and California will trend warmer through the period underneath of a building upper level ridge. Kong/Santorelli Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php