Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 06 2022 - 00Z Fri Apr 08 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday...

...Multi-day wet snow event over the Upper Midwest...

...There is an Elevated to Extreme Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Plains...

Deep low pressure over the Upper Midwest and the Southern Plains, along
with a strong area of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest and the
North Pacific, will combine to produce a very strong pressure gradient
over the Northern/Central Rockies and Northern/Central High Plains,
prompting High Wind Warnings over the Region through Wednesday morning and
afternoon.

Furthermore, a strong front over the Upper Midwest to the Southern High
Plains, along with a wave of low pressure on the associated warm front
over the Mid-Atlantic, will produce rain and snow over the Upper Midwest
and showers and thunderstorms over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley to
the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic overnight Tuesday into Thursday.
In addition, upper-level energy over the Southeast will destabilize the
atmosphere over the area, creating conditions favorable for severe
thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and Southeast through
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there is a greater chance of EF2-EF5 tornadoes over
parts of the Southeast during this time. In addition, heavy rain will be
associated with these thunderstorms. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms continues on Wednesday over
parts of the Southeast and Southern Appalachians; producing hazards with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Likewise, the threat of excessive
rainfall continues over parts of the Southeast as the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the
region. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, multi-day wet snow event will develop over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes, with some areas getting 12
inches of snow with the favorable flow off Lake Superior. Additionally,
rain and snow will start over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and
Wisconsin on Wednesday afternoon into evening, then changes over to wet
snow. The snow will continue over the region through Thursday evening.

Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will contribute to the SPC
issuing a Critical Risk of fire weather over most of the High Plains on
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, the fire weather threat increases
to an Extreme Risk over the Southern High Plains in Texas and Oklahoma on
Wednesday. 

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php