Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 11 2022 - 00Z Wed Apr 13 2022

...There is an elevated to critical threat for fire weather over a large
portion of the Southwest and the Central and Southern High Plains into
next week...

...A major late-season winter storm will begin to impact the West by
Monday night with strong winds, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow...

...Severe weather is expected to begin impacting areas of the Southern
Plains and the lower-to-middle Mississippi Valley by Monday...

A strong low pressure developing near the Pacific Northwest coast is
forecast to track inland and drag a cold front with it. This potent system
will usher in strong winds, heavy rain and mountain snows across the
Intermountain West Sunday night into Monday. Abundant moisture will be
directed onshore within the strong onshore flow which will help increase
precipitation intensity and coverage of the rain across the Coastal Ranges
of Oregon and northwest California and switching to heavy, wet snow for
the Cascades. The cold airmass pushing in behind this front and the
abundant moisture will overspread the Great Basin and the Northern Rockies
through Monday. As the system exits the Rockies and enters the High Plains
it will deepen further becoming a potent late season winter storm for the
Rockies and the Plains. Some of the highest terrain will have
accumulations of 1 to 2+ feet, with the higher amounts likely over the
Oregon Cascades. Heavy wet snow is expected to spread from eastern Montana
to western North Dakota by Tuesday where accumulations of a foot or more
will be possible. Numerous Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect from Washington, Oregon, California eastward to
Minnesota.

The Central and Southern High Plains, and parts of the Southwest, have
been and will continue to have low humidity and gusty winds. Critical
conditions for the spread of wildfires have been identified by SPC into
early next week. A vast area from southern Arizona to Nebraska and south
to South Texas have Red Flag Warnings and High Wind Warnings in effect.
This threat will continue until the strong storm system in the West ejects
out into the Plains midweek.

In contrast, much the central and eastern states will be relatively calm
weatherwise, but there will be a cold front crossing the Midwest and the
Great Lakes region late Sunday through Monday. This features will bring a
threat of rain and perhaps a little wet snow to areas of the Upper
Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
Central and Southern Plains ahead of the approaching front. Some of the
storms may become severe per SPC who has a Slight Risk highlighted for
Monday. The coverage and intensity of these storms are expected to impact
more of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. These storms will be
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.

Campbell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php