Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 16 2022 - 12Z Mon Apr 18 2022

...Abnormally mild and stormy across the South this Easter weekend...

...Measurable snowfall from the Sierra Nevada to the Northern Rockies
today and into the northern Plains by Easter Sunday...

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions are in place over parts of northern
New Mexico...

A distinct temperature contrast between the northern and southern tiers of
the Lower 48 will be present as the South remains abnormally warm while
the North contends with more late winter-like conditions. Starting in the
South, abnormally hotter than normal conditions will be common throughout
the holiday weekend. A small handful of record highs are forecast in South
Texas and central Florida with highs soaring above the century mark along
and near the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front pushing south
through the Tennessee Valley this morning will be responsible for igniting
additional showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and the Deep South today and Easter Sunday. A pair of Slight Risks have
been posted by the Storm Prediction Center for parts of these regions each
day with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes all possible
within severe storms. In addition to the severe threat, there is also the
potential for Excessive Rainfall. A pair of Marginal Risks have been
issued in the Deep South with a small Slight Risk areas in eastern Alabama
and central Georgia on Easter Sunday. Rainfall totals could surpass 2
inches with localized totals of 3 to 4 inches possible through the
remainder of the weekend.

Farther north, temperatures that are more reminiscent of "late in the
winter" storms will be common from the Northwest to the Great Lakes. A
handful of daily record cold max and minimum temperatures are possible in
the Pacific Northwest and northern High Plains today where daily
temperature anomalies are likely to be 15-20 degrees below normal. There
are also Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories that are in place early this
morning. After one more mild day in the Northeast, a cold front will usher
in the cold Canadian air-mass residing in the Midwest today. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along the front in the
Northeast but the odds of storms becoming severe are lower than their
neighbors to the South. Farther west, a Pacific storm system delivering a
surge of Pacific moisture will result in accumulating snowfall from the
Sierra Nevada to the northern and central Rockies today. Snow totals up to
a foot are possible in the Sierra Nevada, the higher elevations of Idaho,
and western Montana. To account for these lighter but still potentially
disruptive snow event, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued through
this afternoon for some of the the northern Rockies and Sierras. By Easter
Sunday, the wave of low pressure exits the Rockies and enters the Great
Plains, bringing its shield of snow to the Dakotas and Upper Midwest.
Another 4 to 8 inches of snow is forecast across northeast Montana and
northern North Dakota on Sunday.

Elsewhere, fire weather remains a big concern in parts of the southern
High Plains and lower Four Corners region. A Critical Risk of fire weather
is in place over northern New Mexico and far southern Colorado due to
gusty winds and very dry relative humidity levels. Currently there are a
pair of Elevated Risk areas in parts of the southern and central High
Plains for Easter Sunday but a Critical Risk area may be necessary in
future forecasts.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php