Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 20 2022 - 00Z Fri Apr 22 2022

...Mountain snow for the highest elevations of the Northwest...

...Severe storms to form in parts of the Southern Plains while unsettled &
stormy weather arrives in the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday...

...Summer-like warmth and a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of
the Front Range, Southwest and Southern Plains through Wednesday; chilly
weather sticks around in the Northeast through mid-week...

Much of the eastern U.S. will remain mired within an abnormally chilly
air-mass for mid-April through mid-week. A handful of daily record cold
high and low temperatures are forecast in parts of the Midwest, Great
Lakes, and Northeast today. There are also a combination of Freeze
Warnings and Frost Advisories in the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valleys. In
addition to the cold, a Nor'easter will continue to produce periods of
light snow in parts of the interior Northeast this evening along with
gusty winds. Additional snow accumulations between 3-6 inches are expected
from northern Pennsylvania to the Adirondacks. Lake effect snow downwind
of Lake Erie may also produce accumulating snowfall greater than 8 inches
in southwestern New York. Some pockets of measurable snowfall are also
expected in parts of the central Appalachians today. High pressure
continues to build in from the west tonight and moves over the East Coast
by Wednesday, making for a mostly dry but still relatively chilly day.

Farther west, a frontal system tracking through the northern Rockies this
afternoon will eject into the northern High Plains tonight. In its wake,
areas of mountain snow will lead to pockets of 6"+ snowfall totals in
parts of the Sierra Nevada, Oregon Cascades, and the Tetons. In the
southern High Plains, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the evening with the best odds for severe storms in the Texas
Panhandle where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for
severe weather. As a potent upper level disturbance tracks through the
Intermountain West tonight and into the northern High Plains Wednesday
morning, a strengthening surface low in the central High Plains will
become the focus for the next round of severe storms Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Slight Risk has been issued for northeast Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas where severe hazards such as tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds are all possible. Periods of rain are also likely in the
Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks on Wednesday where over one inch
of rain is forecast. Severe storms will also be possible in the Pacific
Northwest as the next Pacific storm system approaches the region. Rainfall
totals of 1.5 to 2 inches are expected on Wednesday in southwest Oregon
and coastal northern California. In the higher elevations, snowfall totals
as much as a foot or more are on tap in the Shastas, Cascades, and
northern Sierra Nevada.

Elsewhere, it is a busy stretch for fire weather in the Southwest and the
High Plains. Critical Risks for fire weather have been issued from Las
Vegas on east across northern Arizona and much of New Mexico. The fire
weather hazards are due to gusty winds, dry fuels, and low humidity. The
more concerning Critical Risk areas stick around in parts of the western
Nebraska and eastern Wyoming on Wednesday, as well as central and southern
New Mexico. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for all of these areas.
Summer-like temperatures will expand into the Great Plains tomorrow and
then the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. A cold airmass will keep
temperatures well below average over parts of North Dakota and northern
Minnesota through the weekend.

Kebede/Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php