Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 24 2022 - 00Z Tue Apr 26 2022

...Blizzard Warnings for the Northern High Plains through Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Plains
and Mississippi Valley; there is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Southern Plains on Sunday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies and Southern/Central Plains...

On Saturday, a strong storm over the Northern Plains will move
northeastward into Central Canada by Sunday evening. The associated front
will destabilize the atmosphere over the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern Plains, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and the
Central/Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Similarly, there is a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over the same region through Sunday morning.

In contrast, there are Blizzard Warnings over the Northern High Plains
through early Sunday morning. Snow will continue over parts of the
Northern Plains, on Sunday, as the area of snow moves slowly eastward into
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, yet over a more limited
area by Monday evening.

The showers and thunderstorms move eastward as the front moves eastward on
Sunday. However, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces to a Marginal
Risk extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains on Sunday.
However, the threat of excessive rainfall increases by two categories on
Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms along the front on Sunday into Monday
morning over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding.
Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

On Monday, the showers and thunderstorms will move eastward extending from
the Lower Great Lakes to the Southern Plains and Western/Central Gulf
Coast. On Monday, the excessive rainfall threat reduces to a Marginal Risk
over parts of eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile,
snow will linger over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies from Saturday
into Monday afternoon as upper-level energy lingers over the region.

Furthermore, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest
overnight Sunday and move inland to the Northern Intermountain Region by
Monday afternoon. The system will produce rain and the highest elevation
snow over parts of the Northwest, with rain extending into the Northern
Rockies by Monday.

Moreover, the SPC has issued an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts
of the Southern Rockies and Southern/Central Plains through Sunday
morning. The fire weather hazard is due to gusty winds, dry fuels, and low
humidity. However, the fire weather risk decreases over the area on Sunday.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php