Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022

Valid 12Z Fri May 13 2022 - 12Z Sun May 15 2022

...Summer-like heat from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes and
northern New England will continue to challenge daily records...

...Unsettled weather along the East Coast and in the Lower Mississippi
Valley into the start of the upcoming weekend...

...Cooler and damp for in the Pacific Northwest with some periods of
mountain snow this morning...

On Friday, the storm system responsible for producing severe weather over
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday, lifts north into
south-central Canada while its cold front slowly inches east across the
Midwest and central Plains. While not as significant of a severe threat as
Thursday, there is still a Slight Risk that stretches from northeast
Oklahoma on north into the western Great Lakes region. There is also a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for similar at-risk areas for severe
weather on Friday. The front makes a little more eastward progress on
Saturday but will still remain a focal point for afternoon and evening
clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Storms could be severe from the
Great Lakes on south to West Texas, but it is the central Plains and
Ozarks that feature the best odds for witnessing organized severe weather.

Meanwhile, temperatures moderate some on Friday as the aforementioned cold
front tracks across the Heartland but above normal temperature anomalies
on the order of 10-15 degrees are still expected. The hottest temperatures
versus normal will set up shop over the Great Lakes and northern New
England where highs ranging 20-30 degrees above normal will challenge
daily record highs in the mid-upper 80s. By Saturday, summer-esque heat
arrives in the Desert Southwest where some record heat is possible. This
prolonged stretch of summer looks to stick around in the Southern Plains
throughout the weekend with daily chances for record breaking heat. As for
good news, after a multi-day string of Critical to Extreme Risks of Fire
Weather conditions in the southern High Plains and Southwest, winds look
to relax enough to finally provide from dangerous fire weather conditions,
although more summer-like heat and dry conditions persist.

Farther east, a wave of low pressure will meander along the Southeast
coast tomorrow and then slowly work its way up the East Coast on Saturday.
This low pressure system will provide an influx of Atlantic moisture along
the East Coast, leading to the daily opportunities for spotty showers and
thunderstorms from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Locally heavy
rainfall rates are possible, most notably in the Southeast today and
Friday. As the low begins to lift north along the front positioned off the
coast Saturday afternoon, some showers and storms may pop-up across
portions of the Northeast. To the West, a frontal system is bringing
periods of rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest. This storm
system will also lead to another injection of cool Pacific air from the
Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. Abnormally cool conditions
look to hang around through Saturday but rebound to seasonally warm levels
by Sunday as upper level ridging builds in aloft.

Mullinax/Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php