Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022

Valid 12Z Thu May 19 2022 - 12Z Sat May 21 2022

...Severe Thunderstorms expected over portions of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley today; Midwest and Southern Plains on Friday...

...Flash flooding possible in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
today...

...Widespread temperature records to be tied or broken in Deep South and
East Coast...

...Heavy snow in the Rockies; Critical Fire Weather for Southwest into
Southern/Central Plains...

A deep upper-level trough and retrograding ridge in the western Atlantic
will drive much of the significant weather across the lower 48 over the
next couple of days. Heavy rain and scattered to isolated thunderstorms
will focus between a pair of warm fronts extending across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest today. A Slight Risk of flash flooding is in
effect for portions of northeastern North Dakota and Northwestern
Minnesota as a result. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing
supercells with large hail, tornadoes and wind damage are possible over
portions of Iowa, Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota where a Slight Risk
with an embedded Enhanced (level 3/5) is in effect for this
afternoon/evening. Downstream, another system will produce showers and
thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic. A
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for a swath of land
extending from eastern Missouri to coastal Carolina, where isolated large
hail, a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts are expected.

Meanwhile, heavy mountain snow will spread from the Northern Rockies down
to the Colorado Rockies beginning today. 6-10 inches of snow with locally
higher amounts are possible for the aforementioned areas by Saturday
morning. Winter Storm and High Wind Warnings are in effect for portions of
west-central Montana. A cold airmass will dive into the Rockies and
Northern/Central Plains on the backside of the upper trough responsible
for producing the heavy mountain snow. Temperatures will remain above
average over much of the Southern/Central Plains today as high pressure
glides across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s and 100s for a
large swath extending north-south from west-central Texas up to Nebraska,
which will tie or break existing high temperature records. These
temperatures will be 20-30 degrees above average. This sustained heat
wave, which began days ago, lead to the issuance of Excessive Heat
Warnings for parts of central Texas including Abilene and San Angelo this
afternoon. Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat
related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in
outdoor activities.

Much of the Central Rockies/Plains will experience 40-50 degree
temperature swings between today and tonight due to the surge of cold air
from the northwest. Much of the Northern/Central Rockies/Plains will
experience highs in the 40s and 50s which will be 20-25 degrees below
average for this time of year. The East Coast will begin to warm up this
afternoon beneath an upper-level ridge that is strengthening its position
in the region ahead of the weekend. Much of the East will experience highs
in the 90s on Friday, which will be 15-20 degrees above average.

Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to materialize
over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains on Friday. Some severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts are possible over these areas. Farther to the
west, a Critical Fire risk is in effect for much of New Mexico, Colorado,
southern Utah and northern Arizona today as windy/dry conditions fuel the
fire threat. Red Flag warnings are in effect for these areas.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php