Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

Valid 00Z Sat May 21 2022 - 00Z Mon May 23 2022

...Strong to severe storms possible from the Northeast to the Southern
Plains this weekend...

...Record-breaking heat expected from the Northeast to the Southern Plains
this weekend...

...Late-season winter storm to bring heavy snow to portions of the central
Rockies through Saturday...

A strong cold front, currently extending from the Great Lakes back into
the southwestern U.S., will slowly shift farther south and east into the
weekend.  From the Great Lakes and Northeast back into the southern Great
Plains, this front will likely be the focus for numerous showers and
thunderstorms.  Some of these storms may become strong to severe,
especially across portions of northern Lower Michigan and a small portion
of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas near the Red River this evening. 
A more expansive threat may unfold tomorrow with scattered severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail possible
during the afternoon and evening from eastern Texas, into the mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and the Northeast.  On Sunday, the threat
for severe weather can be expected again across portions of the Northeast.
In addition to damaging winds and hail, heavy rainfall, resulting in
isolated to localized flash flooding, may become a concern also.

Ahead of the front, well-above normal to record-breaking temperatures will
continue to surge north through the eastern U.S.  From the Ohio Valley
into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, expect numerous temperature records
to be tied or broken tomorrow as daytime temperatures climb as much as 20
degrees above normal, while remaining well above their typical overnight
lows as well.  It will remain hot for another day across eastern Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley as well, with more records likely on
Saturday before the front arrives and a dramatic cooldown begins for the
latter half of the weekend.

While fire weather concerns are expected to be comparatively less than
those of previous days, regional concerns are expected to continue for
portions of the Southwest, where dry and windy conditions may continue to
promote conditions favorable for rapid fire growth.

Behind the front, well-below normal temperatures will continue to spread
south and east across the northern to central Rockies and Great Plains. 
Freeze watches and warning, along with frost advisories, currently extend
from northern Minnesota to the central Rockies.  A winter storm warning
remains in effect for portions of the central Rockies into the adjacent
high plains, including the Denver metro.  A late season winter storm is
expected to produce at least a few inches along the I-25 corridor from
Cheyenne to Denver, with amounts of a foot or more possible across the
mountains farther to the west and along the Palmer Divide.

Pereira

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php