Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

Valid 12Z Sat May 21 2022 - 12Z Mon May 23 2022

...Record heat in the East; record cold in the Rockies...

...Strong to severe storms possible from the Northeast to the Southern
Plains this weekend...

...Heavy snow ending late this morning over portions of the central
Rockies...

While it may look and feel like a return to winter over portions of
Colorado, mid-summer heat will grasp much of the East today and linger
into tomorrow over New England. A dip in the jet stream will maintain much
cooler than normal temperatures for the Rockies into the Plains, with a
strong cold front separating it from the hot weather in the East. Along
and ahead of this boundary, showers and thunderstorms will again be common
today with heavy rain/flash flooding possible over the middle Mississippi
Valley. In addition, severe weather is possible anywhere from Texas
northeastward to northern New England today. Storms may be capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail. Temperatures to the east of the
cold front will be well above normal with many areas near record highs for
the date. This will also be the warmest day of the year so far for some.
90s will be common even into the Northeast which is about 20-25 degrees
above normal. Heat advisories are in effect for today. Behind the front,
snow will gradually diminish through the day over Colorado but
temperatures will remain very cold for late May -- nearly 40 degrees below
normal.

On Sunday, the cold front will progress eastward into the Northeast but
slow as it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will be the focus
for heavy rain/flash flooding though many thunderstorms can produce heavy
rain. In the Northeast, Sunday will bring another chance of severe weather
as the front slowly moves eastward. Temperatures will rise into the 80s
and 90s once again after a steamy start with lows only in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Farther west, Sunday will bring much cooler weather to the
Midwest, middle Mississippi Valley, and much of Texas behind the cold
front. Many areas will see highs about 20 degrees cooler on Sunday
compared to Saturday. Sunday night into Monday, the front will push off
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coast but stall across the Southeast,
maintaining a chance of showers and some storms.

While fire weather concerns are expected to be comparatively less than
those of previous days, regional concerns are expected to continue for
portions of New Mexico, where dry and windy conditions may continue to
promote conditions favorable for rapid fire growth.

Fracasso

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php