Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

Valid 12Z Sun May 22 2022 - 12Z Tue May 24 2022

...Heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding for the Lower Mississippi
Valley today...

...One last day of record heat for the Northeast; record cold in the
Rockies and central Plains...

A strong cold front will continue its eastward and southeastward motion
into the Northeast today, with very warm temperatures preceding it.
Readings will again reach well into the 80s and low to mid 90s from the
Mid-Atlantic into New England. This could approach or exceed some daily
records over Southern New England. As the front nears this afternoon,
showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the I-81
corridor then toward the coast around and after sunset. Some thunderstorms
may be severe, with strong winds and hail possible. To the south, the
tail-end of the front will slowly move toward the northwestern Gulf coast
where increased moisture from the south will fuel showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Rainfall could be heavy over portions of
southeastern Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi and Alabama with
flash flooding possible. Into the Rockies, record cold temperatures this
morning will rebound into the 50s across many lower elevations, but this
will still be well below normal for late May. Fire weather concerns will
continue over the Southwest, but shift into southern Utah and eastern
Arizona to the south and west of a lingering frontal boundary.

On Monday, the frontal boundary will have pushed into the Atlantic,
ushering in much cooler weather for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler than Sunday as high pressure
moves through the Great Lakes and southern Canada. The stalled frontal
boundary over the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley will again be a
focus for showers and storms, with the continued threat for flash
flooding. Additionally, rainfall will increase in coverage and intensity
of parts of Texas and Kansas/Oklahoma as moisture surges into the Plains
ahead of a mid-level system in the Rockies. North of this area, across the
central Plains, temperatures will be well below normal by about 20-25
degrees. Farther west, the central California valley will trend much
warmer (into the mid 90s) as a weak front moves into the Pacific Northwest
will mainly light mountain rain and snow.



Fracasso


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php