Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

Valid 00Z Thu May 26 2022 - 00Z Sat May 28 2022

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat continues for the eastern half
of the country...

...Above normal temperatures and some fire weather risk expected in the
West...

...Pacific storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms from the
Northwest to the Northern Great Plains late Thursday into Friday...

The risk for flash flooding and severe weather will accompany a complex
storm system moving through the eastern half of the country through the
short-term forecast period (Friday evening). A warm, moist airmass will
continue to expand northward as a warm front lifts north through the Great
Lakes region late Wednesday and a cold front moves slowly eastward,
helping to maintain the development of widespread showers and
thunderstorms. There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall
Thursday for the Central Gulf Coast where thunderstorms will tend to
develop and move over the same areas promoting widespread rainfall totals
between 2-3 inches, with the risk of significantly higher totals between
3-6 inches possible. Rainfall over the region Wednesday will also leave
saturated soils contributing to the risk for flooding. A broader Slight
Risk is in place northward through portions of the Southeast into the
Southern Appalachians with rainfall totals between 1-2 inches forecast,
locally as high as 3-4 inches into the Southern Appalachians. Further
northward, there is a severe weather risk across portions of the Upper
Ohio Valley where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5). Storms will carry the threat for gusty winds along with
isolated instances of hail and perhaps a tornado. The heavy rainfall and
severe weather risk continues Friday as the cold front moves slowly
eastward. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the Piedmont
of North Carolina north through the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall totals between
1-2 inches are forecast, with isolated totals above 3 inches possible.
There is also a Slight Risk of severe weather across the same region as
gusty winds accompany lines of thunderstorms moving across the area, with
some hail also expected. Outside of the highlighted risk areas, rainfall
locally of up to an inch is possible for locations from the Central
Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.

Meanwhile, in the West, well above normal temperatures across California
Wednesday will expand eastward to the Great Basin as well as the Rockies
and High Plains Thursday and Friday as an upper-level ridge moves across
the region. High temperatures Thursday in the Great Basin will reach the
low 90s, around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. The high
temperatures as well as dry conditions and gusty downslope winds have
prompted an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center
for most of Nevada. Hot temperatures will also continue across the San
Joaquin Valley of California and the Desert Southwest with highs at or
above 100 forecast. The High Plains will see similarly abnormal high
temperatures Friday with highs into the 90s as far north as South Dakota.

Later in the period, a Pacific storm system will move into the Northwest
late Thursday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
along will cooler temperatures, will expand from the coast to the Northern
Rockies. Storms are expected to continue Friday as a cold front pushes
eastward across the region with showers and thunderstorms spreading into
the Northern Plains by Friday evening.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php