Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

Valid 00Z Sat May 28 2022 - 00Z Mon May 30 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe storms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and the Northern High Plains through Saturday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe storms over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains from Saturday to Sunday morning...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Southwest/Southern Rockies...

On Friday night, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the
Southeast/Central Gulf Coast will slowly move off the Northeast/northern
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop along and ahead of the boundary through Saturday. In addition, the
front and moisture pooling along the boundary will destabilize the
atmosphere. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast through Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary from the
Northeast to the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over the Mid-Atlantic through Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
On Saturday, the front continues to advance eastward. As a result, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic Coast,
and the Florida Peninsula, coming to an end overnight Saturday.

Meanwhile, there is a complicated series of fronts moving across the
Northern High Plains to the Northern Plains by Saturday morning. The
boundaries will aid in producing light rain over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and moving into the Northern Intermountain Region by Saturday
morning. In addition, the front will destabilize the atmosphere over the
Northern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.

The severe thunderstorm threat continues on Saturday. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains from Saturday through Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

In the meantime, a third front moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest
and advances to the Northern Plains by Sunday. Light rain will return to
the Pacific Northwest by late Saturday morning and expand into the
Northern Intermountain Region by late Saturday afternoon. Overnight
Saturday, the snow levels will lower over parts of the higher elevations.
Therefore, the highest elevations of the Cascades and Northern Rockies
will get light wet snow. As the front moves out of the Rockies onto the
Plains, The threat of severe thunderstorms returns to the Northern/Central
Plains on Sunday.

Lastly, a Critical Risk of fire weather returns to the Southwest and the
Southern Rockies on Saturday. The threat is due to strong gusty winds, dry
fuels, and low humidity.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php