Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 12 2022 - 00Z Tue Jun 14 2022

...Dangerous heat continues from Southwest to Southern Plains tonight...

...Heavy rainfall and flooding potential to continue through the weekend
across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...

...Strong to severe storms possible from the Northern Rockies to the Lower
Missouri Valley tonight...

Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings and Advisories are in effect for parts of
the Southwest to Southern Plains, due, in part, to the presence of an
upper-level ridge over the southern tier of the country. Widespread high
and low temperature records are forecast to be tied or broken over the
coming days, especially in the Central/Southern Plains as the upper ridge
shifts eastward. High temperatures are likely to range from the 100s into
the 110s while lows are expected to only bottom out in the 70s and 80s for
much of the aforementioned regions. The upper ridge will eventually settle
over the Southeast by the beginning of next week allowing for the
advection of very warm air up into the Midwest. Highs in parts of Nebraska
are forecast to eclipse 100 degrees F while parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Carolinas will be in the upper 90s to 100s--all
potentially record breaking. The lack of relief overnight will make this a
particularly dangerous situation for those who are sensitive to heat in
any way, therefore necessary precautions should be taken.

An anomalous trough will arrive over the Pacific Northwest tonight,
bringing with it the chance for excessive rainfall and below normal
temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region and
into the Northern Rockies on Sunday as a cold front sweeps through.
Potential pockets of heavy rainfall may develop in the higher terrain of
northern Idaho, northeastern Oregon and northwestern Montana as the cold
front moves slowly through the region over the next couple of days.
Downsteam of this, another pair of low pressure systems will bring showers
and thunderstorms to the Northern/Central Plains and East Coast through
Monday. Slight Risks of severe thunderstorms are in effect for parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley tonight along a
pair of surface fronts. Severe hail in the Lower Missouri Valley as well
as large hail and damaging winds over the Northern Plains will be the main
threats from any severe thunderstorms that materialize tonight. Slight
Risks of severe thunderstorms expand across the Northern/Central Plains
and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday thanks to the progression of the upper pattern
into the Rockies and East Coast respectively. Large hail and damaging
winds are possible as a result. As the upper-level trough in the West
consolidates and closes off, its attendant surface low and fronts will
deepen and begin impacting the Northern tier of the country on Monday.
Heavy rain and scattered to isolated thunderstorms may develop out ahead
of this deepening system over the parts of the Northern Plains. Flash
flooding is possible, as highlighted by a Slight Risk, over much of
eastern North Dakota, while severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
along a strong cold front over much of North Dakota into western South
Dakota where a Slight Risk is in effect. Thunderstorms could be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php